Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, phenol thiab ketone kev lag luam saw tau nyob rau hauv kev poob siab tag nrho.Tsuas yog MMA ntawm cov khoom qis qis qis hauv lub hli.Kev nce ntawm lwm cov khoom sib txawv, nrog MIBK nce siab tshaj plaws, ua raws li acetone.Nyob rau hauv lub hlis, kev lag luam sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv raw cov khoom siv ntshiab benzene txuas ntxiv poob tom qab nce siab, thiab qib siab tshaj plaws ntawm East Tuam Tshoj kev sib tham tau mus txog 8250-8300 yuan / ton hauv thawj kaum hnub.Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab thiab lig kaum hnub ntawm lub xyoo, kev ua lag luam muaj concentrated tsis zoo.Downstream manufacturers muaj teeb meem digesting qhov nce ntawm raw khoom.Kev ua lag luam ntshiab benzene tau poob qis, uas muaj ntau yam ua rau kev lag luam phenol.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm phenol, kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv lub hli tau cuam tshuam los ntawm lub zog cua, tus nqi sab thiab mov thiab thov qauv.Xav txog qhov tsis muaj kev txhawb nqa tus nqi, bisphenol A kev lag luam kev xav tsis yog siab, kev lag luam tsis zoo rau kev lag luam yav tom ntej, thiab kev lag luam thiab kev nqis peev tsis muaj zog.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, txawm hais tias tus nqi ntawm bisphenol A tau nce ib hlis ntawm lub hli hauv lub Kaum Hlis, qhov kev tsom mus rau tag nrho tsis muaj zog, thiab cov khoom xav tau nce ntxiv.Txawm li cas los xij, downstream PC thiab epoxy resin txuas ntxiv poob, feem ntau yog vim kev cog lus noj.Kev ua lag luam ntawm bisphenol A tsis muaj lub zog los txhawb nqa.Lwm cov khoom lag luam kuj tau coj los ntawm tag nrho cov qauv ntawm cov saw hlau.
Table 1 Ranking List of Rise and Fall of Phenol Ketone Industry Chain thaum Lub Kaum Hli

Duab cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw: Jin Lianchuang

Kev soj ntsuam ntawm qhov nce thiab poob ntawm phenol ketone kev lag luam saw nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis

Cov ntaub ntawv Source: Jin Lianchuang
Raws li pom nyob rau hauv daim duab saum toj no, raws li kev txheeb cais ntawm tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli nce thiab poob ntawm phenol thiab ketone kev lag luam saw nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, yim cov khoom tau nce los ntawm xya thiab poob los ntawm ib qho.

Cov ntaub ntawv Source: Jin Lianchuang
Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li lub hli ntawm lub hli nruab nrab tus nqi txheeb cais ntawm phenol thiab ketone kev lag luam saw nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, qhov nce ntawm txhua yam khoom yog tswj tsis pub dhau 15%.Ntawm lawv, qhov nce ntawm MIBK, cov khoom lag luam qis, yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, thaum qhov nce ntawm cov ntshiab benzene, cov khoom ntws ntws, yog qhov nqaim;Hauv lub hlis, tsuas yog MMA kev lag luam poob, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli poob 11.47% lub hli ntawm lub hli.
Ntshiab benzene: Tom qab cov qauv dav dav ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev ntshiab benzene tau nce thaum Lub Kaum Hli, nws tseem poob qis.Thaum lub hli, Sinopec cov npe ntawm tus nqi ntshiab benzene tau nce los ntawm 350 yuan / tuj rau 8200 yuan / ton, thiab tom qab ntawd poob los ntawm 750 yuan / tuj rau 7450 yuan / ton txij lub Kaum Hli 13 txog rau lub hli tas los.Hauv thawj kaum hnub, cov roj av thoob ntiaj teb tau nce ntxiv, thiab cov styrene downstream feem ntau raug txheeb xyuas.Cov tub lag luam hauv qab tsuas yog xav tau los khaws thiab muab kev txhawb nqa kev lag luam.Kev ua lag luam ntshiab benzene tau nce nqi, thiab Tuam Tshoj sab hnub tuaj kev lag luam tau sib tham tias tus nqi siab tshaj plaws yuav nce mus rau 8250-8300 yuan / ton, tab sis kev lag luam nce siab tsis txuas ntxiv.Nyob rau nruab nrab thiab lig kaum hnub, cov roj av thoob ntiaj teb poob, cov ntshiab benzene sab nrauv lag luam ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog, thiab cov styrene downstream poob rau hauv kev poob siab, ua rau East Tuam Tshoj kev lag luam rov qab mus rau - yuan / ton, thiab cov ntshiab benzene kev lag luam pib. poob tsis tu ncua.Raws li lub Kaum Hli 28, Tuam Tshoj East Tuam Tshoj ntshiab benzene kev lag luam kev sib tham siv yog 7300-7350 yuan / ton, lub ntsiab lus lag luam hauv North Tuam Tshoj yog 7500-7650 yuan / tuj, thiab downstream loj kev txiav txim siab yuav yog 7450-7500 yuan / tuj .
Nws cia siab tias kev lag luam ntshiab benzene yuav tsis muaj zog hauv thawj kaum hnub ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab kev ua lag luam yuav hloov pauv hauv kaum hnub thib ob.Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, sab nraud phaj ntawm ntshiab benzene tsis muaj zog, thiab kev ua hauj lwm ntawm downstream styrene tsis muaj zog.Cov khoom muag ntawm cov ntshiab benzene nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj Chaw nres nkoj tau sau, thiab chav tsev tshiab Shenghong Petrochemical tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm.Kev xa khoom ntawm benzene ntshiab hauv kev ua lag luam yuav nce ntxiv, thiab kev npaj kho ntawm qee qhov qis qis yuav nce ntxiv.Qhov kev thov rau cov ntshiab benzene yuav txo qis piv nrog rau lub sijhawm dhau los.Cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tseem ceeb tsis muaj zog.Kev lag luam hauv tsev ntshiab benzene yuav tsum tsis muaj zog.Hauv nruab nrab thiab lig kaum hnub, yog tias cov khoom siv hauv tsev tshiab ntshiab benzene raug tsim tawm raws li tau teem tseg, cov khoom lag luam yuav nce tsis tu ncua thiab kev sib tw ua lag luam yuav khaus ntau dua.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qee cov khoom siv hauv qab tau npaj yuav rov pib dua thiab nce ntxiv, qhov kev thov rau cov ntshiab benzene yuav nce ntxiv, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau yuav raug txhim kho, thiab kev lag luam hauv tsev ntshiab benzene yuav shaken thiab reorganized nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev ua lag luam kuj yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau qhov sib txawv ntawm cov roj av thoob ntiaj teb, thiab cov txiaj ntsig thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv qab.
Propylene: Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, cov qib siab ntawm propylene kev lag luam poob rov qab, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab tau nce me ntsis piv nrog lub hli dhau los.Raws li kev kaw ntawm hnub 31, kev lag luam tseem ceeb hauv Shandong tau mus txog 7000-7100 yuan / ton, nqis 525 yuan / tuj piv nrog kev kaw lub hli dhau los.Tus nqi hloov pauv hauv Shandong hauv lub hli yog 7000-7750 yuan / tuj, nrog rau qhov amplitude ntawm 10.71%.Hauv thawj kaum hnub ntawm lub hlis no (1008-1014), kev ua lag luam propylene tau tswj hwm los ntawm thawj zaug nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob qis.Thaum pib, cov roj av thoob ntiaj teb tau nce ntxiv, thiab kev lag luam tseem ceeb ntawm propylene yog nyob rau sab muaj zog, nrog kev xav tau zoo.Cov hauv paus ntsiab lus tau dominated los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los.Cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tseem ceeb tsis nyob rau hauv lub zog, thiab cov tuam txhab tsim khoom txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.Tom qab ntawd, cov qauv ntawm cov roj av thoob ntiaj teb thiab polypropylene yav tom ntej tsis muaj zog, thiab cov khoom siv hauv zos tau rov qab los.Lub siab ntawm tus kheej cov chaw tsim khoom kom xa khoom nce ntxiv, ua rau poob qis thiab rub lub siab ua lag luam.Kev txaus siab rau kev yuav khoom qis qis qis, thiab kev lag luam tsis muaj zog poob qis.Nyob rau nruab nrab thiab lig kaum hnub (1014-1021), propylene kev ua lag luam feem ntau ruaj khov, nrog kev taw qhia meej txog cov hauv paus ntsiab lus thiab txwv cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.Ua ntej, tus nqi propylene txuas ntxiv poob rau theem pib, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom tus cwj pwm rau kev kho tus nqi maj mam nce.Cov dej ntws hauv qab yuav tsum tau rov ua dua lub tsev khaws khoom ntawm tus nqi qis, thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam yog qhov ncaj ncees;Thib ob, Shandong PDH cov xov xwm qhib thiab kaw yog sib xyaw, nrog rau qhov tsis paub tseeb.Cov neeg ua haujlwm tau ceev faj hauv kev lag luam, thiab feem ntau saib kev lag luam rationally, nrog me ntsis hloov pauv.Thaum kawg ntawm lub hli (1021-1031), kev ua lag luam propylene feem ntau tsis muaj zog.Vim qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, cov khoom siv hauv zos tau rov qab los, kev xa khoom siab tau nce, kev sib tw nqi txuas ntxiv, ua rau kev poob qis los txhawb kev xa khoom xa tuaj, thiab tag nrho kev lag luam kev xav tau raug rub tawm.Tsis tas li ntawd, ntau qhov chaw raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov xwm txheej kev noj qab haus huv rau pej xeem, thiab cov dej hauv qab tsuas yog xav tau yuav, yog li kev lag luam kev lag luam ua lag luam tsis muaj zog.
Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, cov cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag los ntawm cov kev lag luam loj nyob sab Europe thiab Asmeskas, Western Lavxias kev nplua roj thiab kev siv OPEC + kev cog lus txo cov khoom lag luam thiab lwm yam cuam tshuam tau nyuaj, thiab tag nrho qhov tsis paub tseeb tau muaj zog.Nws tau xav tias cov roj crude yuav qhia qhov sib txawv ntawm kev txwv thawj zaug thiab tom qab ntawd nce siab, tsom mus rau kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi thiab kev puas siab puas ntsws.Ntawm cov khoom siv, qhov nce tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb.Ua ntej, kev cia thiab kev saib xyuas ntawm qee qhov dehydrogenation units hauv Shandong yuav tsum, tab sis qhov tsis paub tseeb yog qhov muaj zog, yog li nws raug pom zoo kom ua tib zoo mloog rau yav tom ntej;Thib ob, nrog kev tso tawm ntawm Tianhong thiab rov pib dua ntawm HSBC, lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab yuav raug tso tawm ntau, thiab qee qhov chaw refineries yuav tsum rov pib dua, thiab cov khoom yuav rov qab los;Thib peb, cov xwm txheej kev noj qab haus huv rau pej xeem tau tshwm sim ntau zaus hauv thaj chaw tsim khoom propylene, uas muaj qee yam cuam tshuam rau kev thauj mus los.Nws raug nquahu kom ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov khoom muag hloov pauv.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm kev xav tau, nws tau nkag mus rau lub caij nyoog xav tau slack lub caij, thiab qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv qab ntawm polypropylene tau tsis muaj zog, uas tau pom tseeb txwv qhov kev thov rau propylene;Nyob rau hauv lub downstream ntawm tshuaj lom neeg kev lag luam, ib co propylene oxide thiab acrylic acid nroj tsuag yuav tsum tau muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm.Yog tias lawv muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom raws li tau teem tseg, qhov kev thov rau propylene yuav raug txhawb nqa.Jinlianchuang cia siab tias cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kev ua si ntawm propylene kev ua lag luam yuav ua rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab kev ua haujlwm yuav raug tswj hwm los ntawm kev poob qis.
Phenol: Kev lag luam phenol hauv tsev tsis muaj zog nyob rau theem siab thaum Lub Kaum Hli, thiab kev lag luam hloov pauv tau cuam tshuam los ntawm lub zog cua, tus nqi sab thiab cov khoom siv thiab cov qauv xav tau.Thaum lub caij so, cov roj av thoob ntiaj teb thiab lub zog thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj lom neeg feem ntau muaj zog, thiab cov tshuaj lom neeg ua lag luam tau zoo.Tom qab hnub so, tus nqi teev npe ntawm Sinopec ntshiab benzene tau tsa.Xav txog qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis tu ncua, cov neeg tsim khoom phenol tseem ceeb tau muab cov nqi siab, thiab kev ua lag luam tau nce sai hauv lub sijhawm luv luv.Txawm li cas los xij, tam sim ntawd tus nqi roj av tseem poob qis, thiab lub zog thiab kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg raug kev txom nyem los ntawm kev poob qis.Tus nqi teev npe ntawm Sinopec ntshiab benzene poob ob peb zaug hauv lub hlis, ua rau muaj kev lag luam tsis zoo.Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau downstream manufacturers kom nqus tau qhov nce nyob rau hauv raw cov ntaub ntawv, thiab lub lag luam liquidity yog heev weakened.Tshwj xeeb, nruab nrab thiab lig kaum hnub ntawm lub xyoo nkag mus rau lub caij nyoog slack lub caij, thiab lub davhlau ya nyob twg tshiab txiav txim tsis zoo.Kev xa khoom tsis zoo ntawm phenol downstream cov nroj tsuag tau ua rau muaj kev nce siab hauv cov khoom muag thiab qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv raw.Xav txog qhov tsis muaj kev txhawb nqa tus nqi, bisphenol A kev lag luam kev xav tsis yog siab, kev lag luam tsis zoo rau yav tom ntej kev ua lag luam, thiab kev lag luam thiab kev nqis peev tau ua tsis muaj zog thiab tsis muaj zog.Txawm li cas los xij, qhov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom lag luam tseem qis, qhov rov ua dua ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj qis dua qhov xav tau, thiab tag nrho cov kev khiav hauj lwm ntawm cov lag luam phenol ketone hauv tsev tsis siab, thiab cov khoom siv nruj nreem txhawb cov nqi cia.Raws li lub Kaum Hlis 27, phenol kev lag luam nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj tau sib tham nyob ib ncig ntawm 10,300 yuan / ton, nqis 550-600 yuan / tuj lub hli nyob rau lub hli txij lub Cuaj Hli 26.
Kev lag luam phenol hauv tsev yuav tsum tsis muaj zog thiab tsis muaj zog nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis.Xav txog qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm tus nqi sab nraud thiab qhov nyuaj ntawm kev txhim kho qhov kev xav tau ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, kev ua lag luam rov qab tsis muaj zog, thiab cov qauv ntawm cov khoom tsis muaj zog thiab kev xav tau yuav txuas ntxiv mus.Lub peev xwm ntawm phenol tshiab ntawm Wanhua hauv Suav teb yuav tsum tau muab tso rau hauv kev siv thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis xyoo no, ua rau kev tos-thiab-pom kev xav ntawm kev lag luam.Txawm li cas los xij, phenol ntau lawm cov tuam txhab muaj kev txaus siab los txo tus nqi, thiab cov chaw nres nkoj qis kuj muaj qee qhov kev txhawb nqa.Yog tsis muaj kev sib cav ntxiv rau qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, muaj qhov txwv tsis pub dhau tus nqi poob qis.Lub downstream bisphenol A muaj peev xwm tsim tau txuas ntxiv mus, thiab cov kev txwv los ntawm kev xav tau tuaj yeem txo qis.Nws cia siab tias tus nqi phenol yuav hloov pauv me ntsis hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, yog li nws yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau kev ua raws li cov xov xwm macro, tus nqi sab, kawg kev lag luam thiab cov lag luam downstream.
Acetone: Thaum Lub Kaum Hli, kev lag luam acetone tau nce ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd poob, uas qhia txog kev hloov pauv V.Thaum kawg ntawm lub hlis no, tus nqi lag luam nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Suav teb tau nce 100 yuan / tuj rau 5650 yuan / ton piv nrog rau lub hli tas los.Vim tias muaj zog thoob ntiaj teb cov roj crude thaum lub sij hawm National Hnub so, cov khoom siv raw benzene tau nce siab, thiab kev lag luam acetone tau qhib siab dua tom qab hnub so.Tshwj xeeb, qhov chaw muab khoom txuas ntxiv nruj.Cov neeg tuav cov khoom lag luam feem ntau tsis kam muag ntawm tus nqi qis, thiab txawm tias tshwm sim hauv huab cua.Kev ua lag luam sai tau nce mus rau 6200 yuan / ton.Txawm li cas los xij, tom qab tus nqi siab, kev taug qab qis qis qis qis.Qee cov tub lag luam tau xaiv kom tau txais txiaj ntsig, thiab lawv txoj kev xav tau nce ntxiv.Kev ua lag luam poob me ntsis, tab sis raws li qhov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom lag luam poob qis, Hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub xyoo, kev lag luam kev xav tau txuas ntxiv txhim kho, cov nqi ntawm cov lag luam tau nce zuj zus, thiab kev ua lag luam acetone pom muaj kev ua tau zoo.Txij hnub kawg, kev lag luam huab cua ua rau tsis muaj zog.Lub downstream bisphenol A thiab isopropanol kev lag luam txuas ntxiv poob rov qab, thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm qee cov lag luam tau poob.Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nkoj tuaj txog ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj tau txuas ntxiv mus.Qhov xwm txheej nruj ntawm qhov chaw muab khoom tau txo qis, qhov kev thov qis qis qis, thiab kev lag luam maj mam poob qis.
Nws cia siab tias kev lag luam acetone yuav tsis muaj zog thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis.Txawm hais tias 650000 t / ib phenol thiab ketone cog ntawm Ningbo Taihua tau pib kho dua, 300000 t / ib phenol thiab ketone cog hauv Changshu Changchun tau npaj yuav rov pib dua thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, thiab cov phenol thiab ketone cog muaj txiaj ntsig zoo.Tseem muaj chaw rau kev txhim kho cov khoom siv hauv tsev.Feem ntau cov khoom qis qis tseem tsis muaj zog.Cov kev xav txog kev yuav khoom hauv qab yog ceev faj.Feem ntau, nws xav tias kev lag luam acetone yuav poob qis hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis.
Bisphenol A: Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, lub lag luam hauv tsev bisphenol A poob ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd sawv.Thaum pib ntawm lub hli, vim qhov nce ntawm lub Hoobkas cov khoom muag thaum hnub so, kev ua lag luam tau ruaj khov thiab tsis muaj zog.Kev tos-thiab-saib lub siab yog hnyav.Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub hlis no, Zhejiang Petrochemical tau tuav lub rooj sib tw ua yeeb yam tom qab, thiab tus nqi txuas ntxiv poob, uas muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau lub khw muag khoom bisphenol A.Tom qab lub koob tsheej, lub load ntawm Sinopec Mitsui chav tsev tau nce tom qab pib dua, thiab lub load ntawm Pingmei Shenma chav tsev nce.Tom qab kev ua koob tsheej, kev ua haujlwm ntawm bisphenol A kev lag luam nce, thiab cov khoom yuav tsum tau nce ntxiv.Tsis tas li ntawd, tom qab lub koob tsheej, tus nqi ntawm phenol tau nce me ntsis, uas qhia txog kev poob qis.Downstream PC thiab epoxy resin txuas ntxiv poob, uas muaj qee yam cuam tshuam rau bisphenol A, feem ntau poob rau nruab nrab lub hli.Thaum kawg ntawm lub hlis, tom qab ua tiav ntawm kev ua tiav ntawm cov dej ntws rov qab, qhov kev txaus siab ntawm kev yuav khoom tau poob qis, thiab kev cog lus tshiab pib thaum kawg ntawm lub hli.Lub downstream feem ntau siv cov ntawv cog lus.Kev hloov pauv ntawm kev txiav txim tshiab tsis txaus, thiab lub zog rau BPA kom maj nrawm yog tsis txaus, thiab tus nqi pib poob rov qab.Txog hnub kawg, kev sib tham ntawm East China bisphenol A kev ua lag luam nyob ib ncig ntawm 16300-16500 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab txhua lub lim tiam tau nce 12.94% lub hli nyob rau lub hli.
Nws cia siab tias kev lag luam hauv tsev bisphenol A yuav txuas ntxiv poob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis.Kev txhawb nqa ntawm raw khoom phenol ketone rau bisphenol A yog qhov tsis muaj zog.Muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev poob qis hauv kev ua lag luam thaum Lub Kaum Hli, cov kev lag luam poob qis rau cov khoom siv raw rau feem ntau, thiab tsis muaj xov xwm zoo los txhawb kev lag luam.Kev ua lag luam tsis muaj zog, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev hloov kho yog loj.Ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.

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