1.1 Thawj peb lub hlis twg BPA kev lag luam kev tsom xam

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm bisphenol A hauv East Tuam Tshoj kev lag luam yog 9,788 yuan / ton, -21.68% YoY, -44.72% YoY.2023 Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Ob Hlis bisphenol A hloov pauv ib puag ncig tus nqi ntawm 9,600-10,300 yuan / ton.Nyob rau lub Ib Hlis thaum ntxov, nrog rau Suav Xyoo Tshiab Huab Cua, thiab qee lub tuam txhab ua ntej lub koob tsheej kom cia cov nyiaj tau los, cov khw muag khoom ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus poob rau 9,650 yuan / ton.Ob lub lis piam ua ntej thiab tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, cov dej ntws los sau cov haujlwm, thiab tom qab lub Festival roj nqi nce mus rau kev lag luam cov saw txuas ntxiv, bisphenol A lub tuam txhab tseem ceeb muab rub, kev lag luam sawv, East China mainstream kev sib tham rub mus txog 10200- 10300 yuan / ton, Lub ob hlis ntuj lub ntsiab downstream digestion daim ntawv cog lus thiab cov khoom muag ua lag luam nyob ib ncig ntawm tus nqi ntawm 10,000 yuan nqaim fluctuations.Nkag mus rau lub Peb Hlis, qhov kev thov rov qab los ntawm lub davhlau ya nyob twg tau qeeb, thiab qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv kev ua lag luam tau hais txog, nrog rau cov xwm txheej pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas cov tsev txhab nyiaj, uas ua rau muaj kev poob qis ntawm cov nqi roj los cuam tshuam kev lag luam kev xav. , lub lag luam luv cua tau pom tseeb.Downstream davhlau ya nyob twg rov qab yog tsawg dua li qhov xav tau, epoxy resin load thawj zaug nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob rau cov khoom muag, PC qhov chaw ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus softened, kev lag luam khoom thiab kev xav tau tsis sib haum xeeb, nrog rau cov xwm txheej nyiaj txiag peripheral pheej hmoo ua rau cov nqi roj thiab cov tshuaj retracement yooj yim rau suppress. kev lag luam kev xav, bisphenol A thiab downstream kev ua lag luam synchronization downward, raws li lub Peb Hlis 31, bisphenol A lag luam tus nqi tag nrho mus rau 9300 yuan / ton.

1.2 Bisphenol A cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sib npaug hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, Tuam Tshoj tus bisphenol A oversupply teeb meem yog pom tseeb.Thaum lub sij hawm, Wanhua Chemical Phase II thiab Guangxi Huayi BPA ua ke 440,000 tons / xyoo ntawm chav tsev tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, thiab tag nrho cov haujlwm tau ruaj khov, uas ua rau cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv.Downstream epoxy resin yog qhov pib zoo ib yam li tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, PC nrog rau kev tsim khoom tshiab thiab kev lag luam pib tus nqi, kev noj kev loj hlob ze li 30%, tab sis tag nrho cov khoom lag luam loj hlob ntau dua li qhov xav tau kev loj hlob, bisphenol. Kev xa khoom thiab kev thov sib txawv tau nthuav dav mus rau 131,000 tons hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg.

1.3 Ib lub hlis twg ntawm kev lag luam chain conduction data sheet

Ib lub hlis twg ntawm bisphenol A nyob rau sab sauv thiab qis qis kev lag luam saw muaj feem cuam tshuam cov ntaub ntawv

2.Bisphenol A kev lag luam kwv yees nyob rau lub quarter thib ob

2.1 Lub quarter thib ob ntawm cov khoom muag thiab kev thov kwv yees

2.1.1 Kev kwv yees ntau lawm

Lub peev xwm tshiab: nyob rau lub quarter thib ob, cov khoom siv hauv tsev bisphenol A tsis meej cov phiaj xwm tsim tawm tshiab.Muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm lub xyoo no kev lag luam tsis muaj zog thiab kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig tau cog lus ntau, qee yam ntawm cov cuab yeej tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm tshaj li qhov xav tau qeeb, txij li thaum xaus ntawm lub quarter thib ob, tag nrho cov khoom siv hauv tsev muaj peev xwm ntawm 4,265,000 tons / xyoo.

Cov cuab yeej poob: lub quarter thib ob ntawm domestic bisphenol A ntaus ntawv centralized overhaul, raws li kev tshawb fawb Lonzhong, lub quarter thib ob ntawm kev kho dua tshiab ntawm ob lub tuam txhab, overhaul muaj peev xwm ntawm 190,000 tons / xyoo, qhov poob yuav tsum nyob ib ncig ntawm 32,000 tons, tab sis Tam sim no Cangzhou Dahua ntaus ntawv tseem nres nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm restart yog tsis paub, lub domestic enterprise manufacturers los ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam cuam tshuam ntawm load poob (Changchun Chemical, Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui, Nantong Xingchen, thiab lwm yam), overhaul Qhov poob yuav tsum yog 69,200. tons, nce 29.8% nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg.

Kev lag luam muaj peev xwm siv: domestic A kev lag luam tso zis yuav tsum ncav cuag 867,700 tons nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, ib tug me ntsis txo ntawm 0.30% piv nrog rau lub quarter thib ib, nce ntawm 54.12% piv nrog rau 2022. 2022 lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023. domestic bisphenol Lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab, qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam tsis muaj zog nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm lub xyoo no, qee lub tuam txhab txiav kev tsim khoom thiab txo cov haujlwm thauj khoom, qhov nruab nrab kev siv peev txheej ntawm kev lag luam yuav tsum ncav cuag 73.78% hauv lub quarter thib ob. , ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 29.8%.Yuav ncav cuag 73.78%, nqis 4.93 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub quarter dhau los, qis dua 2 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov xyoo dhau los.

2.1.2 Net ntshuam kev kwv yees

Tuam Tshoj A kev lag luam ntshuam yuav tsum tau cog lus loj nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, tab sis nws tseem yog ib tug net importer, feem ntau yog domestic ib feem ntawm cov khoom ua lag luam tseem muaj nyob, nrog rau ib co manufacturers ib tug me me ntawm kev lag luam ntshuam, net export ntim. cia siab tias yuav ncav cuag 49,100 tons.

2. 1.3 Kev kwv yees siv qis qis

Hauv lub quarter thib ob, kev noj A cov khoom lag luam hauv Suav teb xav tias yuav ncav cuag 870,800 tons, nce 3.12% YoY thiab 28.54% YoY.Qhov no feem ntau yog vim: ntawm ib sab, muaj cov cuab yeej tshiab npaj yuav muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm rau cov dej ntws epoxy resin, ua ke nrog kev lag luam txo qis thiab thauj khoom hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg mus rau cov khoom muag, kev tsim khoom yuav tsum loj hlob hauv lub quarter thib ob;Ntawm qhov tod tes, PC kev lag luam cov cuab yeej ua haujlwm yog qhov ruaj khov, thaum lub sijhawm cov nroj tsuag ib leeg nres rau kev saib xyuas, kev txo qis thiab qee lub tuam txhab nce kev sib koom ua ke, thiab kev tsim khoom hauv lub quarter thib ob xav tias yuav loj hlob li ntawm 2% YoY piv nrog rau thawj peb lub hlis twg.

2.2 Lub quarter thib ob ntawm cov khoom lag luam tus nqi sib txawv thiab cuam tshuam rau cov khoom kwv yees

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, ib tug xov tooj ntawm domestic phenol acetone units tau teem tseg yuav tsum nres rau kev txij nkawm, thaum lub sij hawm uas tshiab units kuj tau teem caij los ntawm kab, hedging tag nrho cov khoom tau nce me ntsis piv rau thawj peb lub hlis twg.Tab sis raws li lub downstream bisphenol A thiab lwm yam downstream kuj muaj kev saib xyuas los yog load txo cov kev npaj, thaum coj mus rau hauv tus account tus nqi tseem ceeb roj, propylene multi-txheej txheem kev lag luam poob lag luam downside qhov chaw yog txwv, nrog rau cov kev hloov nyob rau hauv downstream davhlau ya nyob twg xav tau, qhov kwv yees. phenol acetone tus nqi yog qhov ruaj khov, phenol tus nqi yuav tsum nyob rau thaj tsam 7500-8300 yuan / ton, acetone nqi ntau 5800-6100 yuan / ton;Kev them nyiaj yug rau bisphenol A tseem muaj.

2.3 Kev soj ntsuam kev lag luam hauv lub quarter thib ob

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, Bisphenol A cov cuab yeej tshiab tsis muaj, ob pawg ntawm cov cuab yeej siv hauv tsev tau npaj kho, lwm cov tuam txhab los ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev xav tau thiab kev lag luam tsis zoo ntawm qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev tsim khoom txo qis los yog txuas ntxiv, thaum lub sij hawm tag nrho cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sib npaug ntawm Bisphenol A xav tias yuav txhim kho nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg, tab sis tag nrho cov khoom tseem txaus, feem ntau ntawm kev ua lag luam yuav tsum tau Bisphenol A nyob ib ncig ntawm tus nqi kab nce thiab nqis qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv, feem ntau ntawm lub hom phiaj "saib kev ua haujlwm ceev faj ntxiv. ".

2.4 Ob peb lub hlis twg cov khoom lag luam tus nqi kwv yees

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, tus nqi lag luam ntawm bisphenol A yuav tsum hloov pauv ntawm 9000-9800 yuan / ton.Ntawm cov khoom siv, cov khoom yuav tsum tau txo qis me ntsis piv nrog rau thawj peb lub hlis twg vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev tu cov nroj tsuag thiab ib feem ntawm cov khoom txo qis, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv kev ua lag luam tshaj lub quarter dhau los lossis yooj yim, tus nqi qhov sib txawv ntawm cheeb tsam yuav tsum nqaim;ntawm qhov kev thov sab, epoxy resin los ntawm cov cuab yeej tshiab muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm thiab tsuas yog tso tawm qhov cuam tshuam ntawm tag nrho cov khoom yuav tsum nce;PC ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob yuav tsum nce me ntsis, tiaj tus thee Shenma, Hainan Huasheng ntaus ntawv yuav tsum tau rov pib tsim los yog nce lub load, lwm tus neeg manufacturers muaj kev soj ntsuam cov phiaj xwm, raws li zoo raws li coj mus rau hauv tus account qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev ua lag luam tom ntej tsis. tsis suav nrog qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev txo qis;tus nqi, phenol ketone los ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev saib xyuas hauv nruab nrab ntawm cov cuab yeej thiab cov kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov, cov nqi kuj tseem ruaj khov, kev txhawb nqa ntawm bisphenol A tseem muaj nyob;kev lag luam kev xav, nrog rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm kev hloov pauv tsis zoo, kev lag luam kev xav tseem muaj.Hauv cov ntsiab lus, cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau thiab tus nqi, bisphenol A yuav tsum khiav hauv qhov nqaim ntawm qhov hloov pauv.