1,Txheej txheem cej luam ntawm octanol kev lag luam tsim khoom thiab kev sib raug zoo-xav tau kev sib raug zoo hauv 2023

Hauv 2023, cuam tshuam los ntawm ntau yam, covoctanolkev lag luam tau ntsib kev poob qis hauv kev tsim khoom thiab nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom siv-xav tau qhov sib txawv.Qhov tshwm sim tsis tu ncua ntawm chaw nres tsheb thiab cov khoom siv tu vaj tse tau ua rau muaj qhov tsis zoo txhua xyoo hauv kev tsim khoom hauv tsev, uas yog qhov tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim hauv ntau xyoo.Qhov kwv yees tag nrho txhua xyoo kev tsim khoom yog 2.3992 lab tons, qhov txo qis ntawm 78600 tons los ntawm 2022. Kev siv tus nqi ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tau kuj tau txo, los ntawm ntau dua 100% hauv 2022 txog 95.09%.

Los ntawm kev pom muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, xam raws li tus qauv tsim muaj peev xwm ntawm 2.523 lab tons, lub peev xwm ntau lawm yog siab dua tus lej no.Txawm li cas los xij, kev nce hauv cov chaw tsim khoom tshiab tau ua rau muaj kev nce hauv cov peev txheej ntau lawm, thaum cov chaw tshiab xws li Zibo Nuo Ao tsuas yog pib tsim khoom thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, thiab kev tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm ntau lawm hauv Baichuan, Ningxia tau raug ncua. mus txog thaum ntxov 2024. Qhov no tau ua rau txo qis hauv kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam octanol hauv 2023 thiab poob hauv kev tsim khoom.

2,Kev tsom xam tob ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kev sib raug zoo ntawm octanol

1.Kev poob qis thiab kev xav tau qhov sib txawv: Txawm hais tias kev tsim cov chaw tshiab tau ncua sijhawm thiab qee qhov chaw kho tshiab tsis tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm raws li tau teem tseg, qhov kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm cov kev xav tau qis qis pib tshwm sim tom qab lub quarter thib plaub, muab kev txhawb nqa rau cov khoom lag luam. octanol khw.Txij thaum Lub Xya Hli mus txog Lub Cuaj Hli, vim yog kev saib xyuas hauv nruab nrab, cov khoom lag luam tau poob qis, thaum qhov kev xav tau nce ntxiv ua rau muaj kev nce qib hauv qhov tsis zoo ntawm qhov kev xav tau sib txawv.

2.Main downstream kev xav tau tsom xam: Lub koob npe nrov ntawm lub lag luam plasticizer tau rebounded, thiab tag nrho cov kev thov yog qhia ib tug upward sib.Los ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom lag luam loj xws li DOP, DOTP, thiab isooctyl acrylate, nws tuaj yeem pom tias cov khoom siv ntawm DOP tau nce ntau, nrog rau tag nrho cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv ntawm 6%, ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev loj hlob ntawm octanol. noj.Kev tsim tawm ntawm DOTP tau txo qis li ntawm 2%, tab sis muaj qhov hloov pauv me ntsis ntawm qhov kev thov tiag tiag rau octanol noj.Kev tsim tawm ntawm isooctyl acrylate tau nce 4%, uas kuj tau pab txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm octanol noj.

3.Kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw: Cov khoom siv ntawm propylene tseem nce ntxiv, tab sis nws cov nqi tau poob qis, nthuav qhov sib txawv nrog tus nqi ntawm octanol.Qhov no txo ​​qis tus nqi siab ntawm kev lag luam octanol, tab sis kuj qhia txog qhov sib txawv ntawm cov dej ntws thiab cov dej ntws tawm.

3,Kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej thiab qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm kev tsim khoom tshiab

1.Supply side outlook: Nws cia siab tias qhov kev tso tawm tshiab muaj peev xwm yuav ntsib qhov tsis paub tseeb hauv 2024. Nws xav tias feem ntau ntawm Anqing Shuguang expansion chaw thiab cov chaw tshiab satellite petrochemical tej zaum yuav tsum tau tso tawm nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo. mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo.Cov khoom siv kho dua tshiab ntawm Shandong Jianlan tuaj yeem ncua mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo, uas ua rau nws nyuaj rau so kom txaus lub peev xwm ntawm octanol nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo.Vim muaj yam xws li kev saib xyuas lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav, nws cia siab tias octanol yuav txuas ntxiv ua haujlwm tau zoo hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo 2024.

2.Boosting expectation on the demand side: Los ntawm macro thiab cyclical foundations, downstream kev thov yuav tsum tau boosted yav tom ntej.Qhov no yuav ntxiv kev sib koom ua ke ntawm cov khoom siv nruj-xav kom sib npaug ntawm octanol thiab nce qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev ua lag luam ntawm ib nrab mus rau theem siab.Nws cia siab tias qhov kev lag luam sib txawv hauv 2024 yuav zoo li pom qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov siab nyob rau hauv pem hauv ntej thiab qis hauv qab.Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nrog rau kev tso tawm ntawm tshiab tsim muaj peev xwm mus rau lub lag luam mov thiab kev cia siab ntawm cyclical poob nyob rau hauv downstream thov, tus nqi sab yuav ntsib tej yam kev hloov kho.

3.Kev muaj peev xwm dhau los yav tom ntej thiab kev lag luam poob qis: Hauv xyoo tom ntej, kev npaj ntau lawm ntawm ntau lub octanol units yuav ua kom muaj zog ntau dua.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov kev xav tau qis qis qis kuj qeeb, thiab qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev lag luam yuav nce ntxiv.Nws cia siab tias qhov kev ua haujlwm tag nrho ntawm octanol yuav txo qis yav tom ntej, thiab kev lag luam amplitude yuav nqaim.

4.Cov khoom muag thoob ntiaj teb kev pom zoo: Nws xav tias qhov kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb yuav qeeb hauv xyoo 2024. Tej zaum yuav muaj kev hloov pauv tshiab ntawm cov khoom lag luam bull, tab sis qhov kev lag luam bull no kuj yuav tsis muaj zog.Yog tias cov xwm txheej tsis xav tau tshwm sim thaum lub sijhawm kev lag luam rov qab los, cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem hloov kho.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev ua lag luam octanol tab tom ntsib cov teeb meem ntawm kev tsim khoom poob qis thiab nthuav dav cov khoom siv-xav tau qhov tsis sib xws hauv 2023. Txawm li cas los xij, kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm cov kev xav tau qis qis tau muab kev txhawb nqa rau kev ua lag luam.Saib ua ntej, nws cia siab tias kev ua lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv kom muaj kev lag luam muaj zog, tab sis nws yuav ntsib kev hloov pauv hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob.

Saib ua ntej mus rau 2024, lub ntiaj teb kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob qis yuav qeeb, thiab cov nqi feem ntau yuav qhia txog kev nce siab hauv xyoo 2024. Tej zaum yuav muaj lwm qhov kev lag luam bull, tab sis theem ntawm lub khw muag nyuj yuav tsis muaj zog.Yog tias qee qhov xwm txheej tsis xav tau tshwm sim thaum lub sijhawm kev lag luam rov qab los, cov nqi khoom lag luam kuj tseem yuav poob qis thiab kho.Nws xav tias kev khiav hauj lwm ntau ntawm Jiangsu octanol yuav nyob nruab nrab ntawm 11500-14000 yuan / tuj, nrog rau tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo ntawm 12658 yuan / ton.Nws xav tias tus nqi qis tshaj ntawm octanol rau tag nrho lub xyoo yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, ntawm 11500 yuan / ton;Tus nqi siab tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo tau tshwm sim hauv lub quarter thib ob thiab thib peb, ntawm 14000 yuan / tuj.Nws cia siab tias txij xyoo 2025 txog 2026, tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo ntawm octanol hauv Jiangsu kev ua lag luam yuav yog 10000 yuan / tuj thiab 9000 yuan / tuj, raws li.