Polyethylene muaj ntau yam khoom raws li txoj kev polymerization, qib molecular hnyav, thiab degree ntawm branching. Cov hom muaj xws li high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), thiab linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE).
Polyethylene tsis muaj ntxhiab tsw, tsis muaj tshuaj lom, zoo li siv quav ciab, muaj qhov kub thiab txias tsis kam, zoo tshuaj ruaj khov, thiab tuaj yeem tiv taus qhov yaig ntawm feem ntau cov kua qaub thiab alkalis. Polyethylene tuaj yeem ua tiav los ntawm kev txhaj tshuaj molding, extrusion molding, tshuab moulding, thiab lwm txoj hauv kev los tsim cov khoom xws li cov yeeb yaj kiab, cov kav dej, cov xov hlau thiab cov cables, cov thawv hollow, ntim tapes thiab ties, ropes, ntses nets, thiab woven fibers.
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb xav tias yuav poob qis. Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev nce nqi siab, kev noj haus tsis muaj zog thiab kev thov raug txo. Tsis tas li ntawd, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tseem nce cov paj laum, txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag nruj, thiab cov khoom lag luam muaj kev ntxhov siab. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia-Ukraine tseem txuas ntxiv thiab qhov kev cia siab tseem tsis meej. Tus nqi ntawm cov roj crude muaj zog, thiab cov nqi ntawm cov khoom PE tseem siab. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, PE cov khoom lag luam tau nyob rau lub sijhawm txuas ntxiv thiab nthuav dav ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm, thiab cov khoom lag luam qis kawg tau ua raws li kev txiav txim qeeb. Qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov khoom siv tsis sib xws tau dhau los ua ib qho teeb meem tseem ceeb hauv kev txhim kho PE kev lag luam nyob rau theem no.
Kev tsom xam thiab kev kwv yees ntawm Ntiaj Teb Polyethylene Supply thiab Demand
Lub ntiaj teb lub peev xwm ntau lawm polyethylene txuas ntxiv mus. Nyob rau hauv 2022, lub ntiaj teb no polyethylene muaj peev xwm ntau tshaj 140 lab tons ib xyoos twg, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 6.1%, nrog rau ib xyoos-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 2.1% nyob rau hauv ntau lawm. Qhov nruab nrab kev khiav haujlwm ntawm chav tsev yog 83.1%, qhov txo qis ntawm 3.6 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus piv rau xyoo dhau los.
Northeast Asia suav txog qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm lub ntiaj teb polyethylene tsim muaj peev xwm, suav txog 30.6% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv polyethylene hauv 2022, tom qab ntawd North America thiab Middle East, suav txog 22.2% thiab 16.4% feem.
Txog 47% ntawm lub ntiaj teb polyethylene ntau lawm muaj peev xwm yog concentrated nyob rau hauv lub sab saum toj kaum kev lag luam nrog ntau lawm muaj peev xwm. Xyoo 2022, muaj ze li ntawm 200 lub tuam txhab loj polyethylene ntau lawm hauv ntiaj teb. ExxonMobil yog lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws polyethylene kev lag luam, suav txog kwv yees li 8.0% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim khoom. Dow thiab Sinopec yog qeb thib ob thiab thib peb.
Xyoo 2021, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb ntawm polyethylene yog 85.75 billion US dollars, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 40.8%, thiab tag nrho cov lag luam ntim yog 57.77 lab tons, ib xyoos ib zaug txo ntawm 7.3%. Los ntawm tus nqi xa tawm, qhov nruab nrab tus nqi xa tawm ntawm polyethylene nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb yog 1484.4 US las ib ton, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 51.9%.
Tuam Tshoj, Tebchaws Asmeskas, thiab Belgium yog lub ntiaj teb cov neeg xa khoom loj ntawm polyethylene, suav txog 34.6% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj; Tebchaws Asmeskas, Saudi Arabia, thiab Belgium yog lub tebchaws xa tawm tseem ceeb ntawm polyethylene hauv ntiaj teb, suav txog 32.7% ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb xa tawm.
Lub ntiaj teb no lub peev xwm ntawm polyethylene yuav tuav tau kev loj hlob sai. Hauv ob xyoos tom ntej no, lub ntiaj teb yuav ntxiv ntau dua 12 lab tons ntawm polyethylene muaj peev xwm nyob rau ib xyoos, thiab cov haujlwm no feem ntau yog cov haujlwm ua ke uas tau tsim ua ke nrog cov nroj tsuag ethylene. Nws xav tias txij xyoo 2020 txog 2024, qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm polyethylene yuav yog 5.2%.
Qhov xwm txheej tam sim no thiab kev kwv yees ntawm Polyethylene Supply thiab Demand hauv Suav teb
Tuam Tshoj tus polyethylene ntau lawm muaj peev xwm thiab cov zis tau nce ib txhij. Nyob rau hauv 2022, Tuam Tshoj tus polyethylene tsim muaj peev xwm nce 11.2% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab ntau lawm nce 6.0% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Raws li qhov kawg ntawm 2022, muaj ze li ntawm 50 polyethylene ntau lawm tuam txhab nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, thiab cov tshiab muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv 2022 mas suav nrog cov chav xws li Sinopec Zhenhai Refinery, Lianyungang Petrochemical, thiab Zhejiang Petrochemical.
Kev sib piv daim duab ntawm Polyethylene ntau lawm hauv Suav teb los ntawm 2021 txog 2023

Kev nce hauv kev pom tseeb ntawm polyethylene yog txwv, thiab tus kheej-sufficiency tus nqi tswj kev loj hlob. Hauv xyoo 2022, qhov pom tseeb ntawm kev siv polyethylene hauv Suav teb tau nce 0.1% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab tus kheej-sufficiency nce los ntawm 3.7 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus piv rau xyoo dhau los.
Lub ntim ntim ntawm polyethylene nyob rau hauv Suav teb tau poob qis xyoo-rau-xyoo, thaum lub sij hawm export ntim tau nce xyoo-rau-xyoo. Xyoo 2022, Tuam Tshoj tus polyethylene ntshuam ntim tau poob 7.7% xyoo-rau-xyoo; Lub export ntim tau nce 41.5%. Tuam Tshoj tseem yog tus xa khoom ntawm polyethylene. Tuam Tshoj tus polyethylene ntshuam kev lag luam feem ntau yog nyob ntawm kev lag luam dav dav, suav txog 82.2% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom ntim; Tom ntej no yog ntshuam ua lag luam, accounting rau 9.3%. Ntshuam feem ntau yog los ntawm cov teb chaws lossis cheeb tsam xws li Saudi Arabia, Iran, thiab United Arab Emirates, suav txog kwv yees li 49.9% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj.
Polyethylene yog dav siv nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, nrog rau zaj duab xis accounting rau ntau tshaj ib nrab ntawm tag nrho cov. Nyob rau hauv 2022, nyias zaj duab xis tseem yog qhov loj tshaj plaws downstream daim ntawv thov teb ntawm polyethylene nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, ua raws li kev txhaj tshuaj molding, yeeb nkab profiles, hollow thiab lwm yam teb.
Tuam Tshoj tus polyethylene tseem nyob rau theem ntawm kev loj hlob sai. Raws li kev txheeb cais tsis tiav, Tuam Tshoj npaj yuav ntxiv 15 pawg ntawm cov nroj tsuag polyethylene ua ntej 2024, nrog rau kev tsim khoom ntxiv ntawm ntau dua 8 lab tons hauv ib xyoos.
2023 PE Cov Khoom Siv Hauv Tsev Tshiab Tsim Cov Txheej Txheem

Raws li lub Tsib Hlis 2023, tag nrho cov peev txheej tsim tawm ntawm cov nroj tsuag PE hauv tsev tau mus txog 30.61 lab tons. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm PE expansion nyob rau hauv 2023, nws xav tias lub peev xwm ntau lawm yuav yog 3.75 lab tons ib xyoo. Tam sim no, Guangdong Petrochemical, Hainan Refining thiab Tshuaj, thiab Shandong Jinhai Tshuaj tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 2.2 lab tons. Nws cuam tshuam nrog tag nrho cov khoom siv ntom ntom nti ntawm 1.1 lab tons thiab ib lub lab HDPE ntawm 1.1 lab tons, thaum lub sijhawm LDPE tseem tsis tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm thaum lub xyoo. Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tom ntej, tseem muaj 1.55 lab tons / xyoo ntawm cov khoom tshiab tsim cov phiaj xwm, koom nrog 1.25 lab tons ntawm HDPE cov cuab yeej thiab 300000 tons ntawm LLDPE cov cuab yeej. Nws cia siab tias Tuam Tshoj tag nrho cov peev txheej yuav ncav cuag 32.16 lab tons los ntawm 2023.
Tam sim no, muaj qhov tsis sib haum xeeb loj ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev xav tau ntawm PE hauv Suav teb, nrog rau cov khoom muaj zog ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm tshiab nyob rau theem tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam qis tau ntsib qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov khoom xaj qis, thiab nyuaj rau kev nce nqi ntawm cov khw muag khoom kawg; Kev txo qis hauv kev khiav hauj lwm cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nqi khiav lag luam siab tau ua rau cov nyiaj tau los nruj rau cov lag luam, thiab nyob rau xyoo tas los no, nyob rau hauv keeb kwm ntawm kev nce nqi siab, cov cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag txawv teb chaws tau ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis, thiab kev thov tsis muaj zog tau ua rau txo qis. nyob rau hauv txawv teb chaws kev txiav txim rau cov khoom. Cov khoom lag luam hauv qab, zoo li PE cov khoom lag luam, yog nyob rau lub sijhawm muaj kev mob tshwm sim vim kev xa khoom thiab kev thov tsis txaus. Ntawm ib sab, lawv yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau cov kev xav tau ib txwm muaj, thaum tsim cov kev thov tshiab thiab nrhiav cov lus qhia xa tawm tau dhau los
Los ntawm kev faib ua feem ntawm downstream PE noj nyob rau hauv Suav teb, qhov kev faib ua feem ntau ntawm kev noj yog zaj duab xis, ua raws li cov khoom loj xws li txhaj tshuaj molding, yeeb nkab, hollow, hlau kos duab, cable, metallocene, txheej, thiab lwm yam. lub ntsiab yog ua liaj ua teb zaj duab xis, industrial zaj duab xis, thiab cov khoom ntim zaj duab xis. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv yas pov tseg ib txwm siv tau maj mam hloov los ntawm qhov nrov ntawm cov yas degradable vim muaj kev txwv cov yas yas. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam ntim cov yeeb yaj kiab kuj tseem nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev hloov kho cov qauv, thiab qhov teeb meem ntawm overcapacity nyob rau hauv cov khoom qis kawg tseem loj heev.
Kev txhaj tshuaj molding, yeeb nkab, hollow thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yog sib txuas nrog cov kev xav tau ntawm kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab kev ua neej nyob txhua hnub. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, vim muaj tej yam xws li cov kev xav tsis zoo ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tawm tswv yim los ntawm cov neeg nyob hauv, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau ntsib qee yam teeb meem kev loj hlob, thiab tsis ntev los no kev txwv tsis pub rov qab los ntawm kev txiav txim xa tawm kuj tau ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev loj hlob qeeb. luv luv.
Dab tsi yog cov ntsiab lus loj hlob ntawm kev thov hauv tsev PE yav tom ntej
Qhov tseeb, ntawm 20th National Congress thaum kawg ntawm 2022, ntau yam kev ntsuas tau raug npaj los txhawb kev xav tau hauv tsev, nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev qhib kev ncig sab hauv hauv Suav teb. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws tau hais tias kev nce hauv nroog loj thiab kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tau rau PE cov khoom lag luam los ntawm kev xav ntawm kev txhawb nqa sab hauv. Tsis tas li ntawd, kev so kom txaus ntawm kev tswj hwm, kev lag luam rov qab los, thiab kev cia siab tias yuav nce ntxiv hauv kev thov rau kev ncig sab hauv kuj tseem muab txoj cai lav rau yav tom ntej rov qab los ntawm kev thov hauv tsev.
Kev hloov kho tshiab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tau ua rau muaj kev xav tau tshiab, nrog rau cov kev xav tau siab dua rau cov yas hauv thaj chaw xws li tsheb, tsev ntse, hluav taws xob, thiab kev tsheb ciav hlau. Cov khoom zoo, kev ua haujlwm siab, thiab cov ntaub ntawv zoo ib puag ncig tau dhau los ua qhov kev xaiv. Cov ntsiab lus loj hlob tuaj rau yav tom ntej xav tau yog nyob rau hauv plaub qhov chaw, suav nrog kev loj hlob ntawm kev ntim khoom hauv kev lag luam xa khoom sai, ntim cov yeeb yaj kiab uas tau tsav los ntawm e-lag luam, thiab kev loj hlob ntawm cov tsheb tshiab, cov khoom siv, thiab kev thov kho mob. Tseem muaj cov ntsiab lus loj hlob rau PE thov.
Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev thov sab nraud, muaj ntau yam tsis paub tseeb, xws li Tuam Tshoj US kev sib raug zoo, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai, Russia Ukraine ua tsov ua rog, geopolitical txoj cai yam, thiab lwm yam. Tam sim no, Tuam Tshoj tus txawv teb chaws kev lag luam thov rau cov khoom yas yog tseem nyob rau hauv cov zis ntawm low-end. cov khoom. Nyob rau hauv lub tshav pob ntawm high-end khoom, ntau yam kev txawj ntse thiab technology yog tseem ruaj khov nyob rau hauv lub txhais tes ntawm txawv teb chaws tuam txhab uas muag, thiab technology blockade ntawm high-end khoom yog heev hnyav, Yog li ntawd, nws kuj yog ib tug muaj peev xwm breakthrough point rau Tuam Tshoj cov khoom yav tom ntej. exports, qhov twg muaj cib fim thiab kev cov nyom coexist. Cov lag luam hauv tsev tseem tab tom ntsib kev tsim kho tshiab thiab kev txhim kho.