1,Kev Ua Lag Luam Txheej Txheem

Tsis ntev los no, tom qab ze li ntawm ob lub hlis ntawm kev poob qis, kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam acrylonitrile hauv tsev tau maj mam qeeb. Raws li lub rau hli ntuj 25th, lub domesticlag luam tus nqi ntawm acrylonitriletau nyob ruaj khov ntawm 9233 yuan / ton. Kev poob qis thaum ntxov ntawm cov nqi lag luam feem ntau yog vim qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv thiab qhov xav tau tsis muaj zog. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog rau kev saib xyuas ntawm qee cov khoom siv thiab kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, cov tuam txhab acrylonitrile tau pib ua kom muaj kev txaus siab los nce nqi, thiab muaj cov cim qhia ntawm kev lag luam ruaj khov.

2,Kev txheeb xyuas tus nqi

Tsis ntev los no kev hloov pauv siab nyob rau hauv cov khoom siv raw khoom propylene tau muab kev txhawb zog rau tus nqi ntawm acrylonitrile. Nkag mus rau Lub Rau Hli, qee qhov PDH propylene sab nraud tau ntsib qee lub sijhawm kev saib xyuas ua rau cov khoom siv hauv zos tsis txaus, uas ua rau tus nqi propylene nce. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm propylene hauv khw Shandong tau mus txog 7178 yuan / ton. Rau acrylonitrile factories uas outsource raw cov ntaub ntawv, tus nqi ntawm propylene raw khoom tau nce li ntawm 400 yuan / tuj. Lub caij no, vim qhov tsis tu ncua ntawm cov nqi acrylonitrile, cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho tau txo qis, thiab qee cov khoom tau pom tias muaj kev poob qis. Tus nqi nce siab tau ntxiv dag zog rau kev txaus siab ntawm cov tuam txhab acrylonitrile kom nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam, thiab kev lag luam kev siv peev txheej tsis tau txhim kho ntxiv. Qee cov khoom siv tau pib ua haujlwm nyob rau hauv kev txo qis.

3,Supply side analysis

Hais txog kev muab khoom, kev saib xyuas tsis ntev los no ntawm qee cov khoom siv tau yooj yim rau kev lag luam kev lag luam siab. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 6, 260000 tuj acrylonitrile chav nyob hauv Korul raug kaw rau kev saib xyuas raws li tau teem tseg. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 18th, 260000 tuj acrylonitrile chav nyob hauv Selbang kuj raug kaw rau kev saib xyuas. Cov kev tswj xyuas no tau txo qis dua qhov kev siv peev txheej ntawm kev lag luam acrylonitrile kom qis dua 80%, tam sim no nyob ib puag ncig 78%. Kev txo qis hauv kev tsim khoom tau zoo txo ​​qhov siab ntawm kev xa khoom ntau dhau ntawm acrylonitrile, ua rau lub Hoobkas cov khoom lag luam tswj tau thiab muab cov tuam txhab muaj kev txhawb siab kom nce nqi.

4,Xav tau kev tsom xam

Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam qis, kev thov tseem tsis muaj zog tam sim no. Txawm hais tias cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntawm acrylonitrile tau nce txij thaum Lub Rau Hli, thiab kev siv qis qis kuj tau nce lub hli ntawm lub hli, qhov kev ua haujlwm tag nrho tseem nyob rau theem qis, nrog kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi acrylonitrile tsawg. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tom qab nkag mus rau lub caij off-season, txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev noj yuav nyuaj rau txuas ntxiv thiab qhia pom tias tsis muaj zog. Siv cov khoom siv ABS ua piv txwv, qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm ABS cov cuab yeej hauv Suav teb tsis ntev los no yog 68.80%, ib hlis ntawm lub hli txo qis ntawm 0.24%, thiab ib xyoos ib zaug txo ntawm 8.24%. Zuag qhia tag nrho, qhov kev thov rau acrylonitrile tseem tsis muaj zog, thiab kev ua lag luam tsis txaus thiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rov qab los.

5,Market Outlook

Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev lag luam hauv tsev propylene yuav tswj tau qhov kev ua haujlwm siab hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, thiab cov nqi txhawb nqa tseem muaj. Nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo dhau los, ntau tus tswv lag luam yuav saib xyuas qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom loj acrylonitrile, thiab kev yuav khoom ntawm qhov chaw yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tau nruj. Thaum tsis muaj cov xov xwm pom tseeb los txhawb, qhov chaw lag luam ntawm acrylonitrile kev ua lag luam yuav tsum nyob ruaj khov. Nws cia siab tias tus nqi sib tham tseem ceeb rau tus kheej khaws cov kaus poom los ntawm East China ports yuav hloov pauv ntawm 9200-9500 yuan / tuj. Txawm li cas los xij, xav txog qhov kev xav tau qis qis qis thiab cov khoom siv siab, tseem muaj qhov tsis paub tseeb hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab nws yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas kev lag luam thiab kev hloov pauv hauv kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam.