1. Nqe Kev Ntsuam Xyuas

Phenol kev lag luam:

Nyob rau lub Rau Hli, phenol tus nqi lag luam tau qhia tag nrho cov kev nce siab, nrog rau tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli nce mus txog RMB 8111 / tonne, nce RMB 306.5 / tonne los ntawm lub hli dhau los, qhov tseem ceeb nce ntawm 3.9%. Qhov kev nce siab no feem ntau yog los ntawm cov khoom lag luam nruj hauv kev ua lag luam, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau sab qaum teb, qhov twg cov khoom siv tsis tshua muaj, nrog rau cov nroj tsuag hauv Shandong thiab Dalian overhauling, ua rau txo cov khoom. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, BPA cog qoob loo pib siab dua li qhov xav tau, kev noj phenol nce ntxiv, ua rau muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv khw. Tsis tas li ntawd, tus nqi siab ntawm cov ntshiab benzene ntawm raw khoom kawg kuj muab kev txhawb zog rau cov nqi phenol. Txawm li cas los xij, thaum kawg ntawm lub hli, cov nqi phenol hloov me ntsis qis dua vim qhov kev poob mus sij hawm ntev ntawm BPA thiab qhov kev cia siab hloov pauv ntawm cov ntshiab benzene thaum Lub Xya Hli-Lub Yim Hli.

Kev lag luam acetone:

Zoo ib yam li kev lag luam phenol, kev ua lag luam acetone kuj tau pom qhov hloov pauv me ntsis hauv lub Rau Hli, nrog tus nqi nruab nrab txhua hli ntawm RMB 8,093.68 ib tonne, nce RMB 23.4 ib tonne los ntawm lub hli dhau los, nce me me ntawm 0.3%. Kev nce ntawm acetone kev ua lag luam feem ntau yog los ntawm kev lag luam kev xav tig zoo vim qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam ntawm kev saib xyuas hauv nruab nrab thaum Lub Xya Hli-Lub Yim Hli thiab txo qis cov neeg tuaj txog yav tom ntej. Txawm li cas los xij, raws li cov chaw nres nkoj hauv qab tau zom cov khoom ua ntej thiab kev thov rau cov kuab tshuaj me me tau poob qis, cov nqi acetone pib tsis muaj zog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub hlis, poob rau ib ncig ntawm RMB 7,850 / mt. Acetone tus kheej muaj tus cwj pwm ntawm tus kheej kuj ua rau kev lag luam tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam bullish, nrog cov khoom lag luam hauv cov khoom lag luam nce siab.

2.kev soj ntsuam khoom

Thaum Lub Rau Hli, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm phenol yog 383,824 tonnes, nqis 8,463 tonnes los ntawm ib xyoos ua ntej; Cov zis ntawm acetone yog 239,022 tonnes, nqis 4,654 tonnes los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los. Phenol thiab ketone cov lag luam pib tus nqi poob qis, kev lag luam pib tus nqi yog 73.67% nyob rau lub Rau Hli, nqis 2.7% txij lub Tsib Hlis. Lub downstream pib-up ntawm Dalian cog maj mam txhim kho, txo qhov tso tawm ntawm acetone, ntxiv cuam tshuam rau cov khoom lag luam.

Thib peb, kev soj ntsuam xav tau

Bisphenol Ib tsob nroj lub Rau Hli pib tus nqi tau nce mus rau 70.08%, nce 9.98% txij lub Tsib Hlis, muab kev txhawb zog rau qhov kev thov rau phenol thiab acetone. Qhov pib tus nqi ntawm phenolic resin thiab MMA units kuj tau nce, nce 1.44% thiab 16.26% YoY raws li, qhia txog kev hloov pauv zoo hauv kev xav tau qis. Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi pib ntawm isopropanol cog tau nce 1.3% YoY, tab sis tag nrho cov kev xav tau kev loj hlob kuj tseem txwv.

3.Kev txheeb xyuas qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom muag

Nyob rau lub Rau Hli, phenol kev lag luam pom tau tias de-stocking, ob lub Hoobkas Tshuag thiab Jiangyin chaw nres nkoj Tshuag tsis kam, thiab rov qab mus rau qib qub thaum kawg ntawm lub hli. Hauv qhov sib piv, qhov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom muag ntawm acetone kev ua lag luam tau nce thiab nyob rau theem siab, qhia txog cov xwm txheej ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem tab sis tsis txaus xav tau kev loj hlob hauv kev ua lag luam.

4.Cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho

Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, East China phenol ketone ib tonne tus nqi nce 509 yuan / tonne nyob rau lub Rau Hli. Ntawm lawv, cov nqi teev npe ntawm cov ntshiab benzene thaum pib ntawm lub hli rub mus txog 9450 yuan / tonne, lub tuam txhab petrochemical nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov ntshiab benzene tau nce 519 yuan / tonne piv nrog lub Tsib Hlis; tus nqi ntawm propylene kuj tseem nce ntxiv, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 83 yuan / tonne siab dua nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis. Txawm li cas los xij, txawm tias tus nqi nce, phenol ketone kev lag luam tseem tab tom ntsib qhov teeb meem poob, kev lag luam hauv lub Rau Hli, poob ntawm 490 yuan / tonne; bisphenol Ib qho kev lag luam txhua hli nruab nrab cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho yog -1086 yuan / tonne, qhia qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm kev lag luam.

Raws li qhov tshwm sim, nyob rau lub Rau Hli, kev lag luam phenol thiab acetone tau pom cov nqi sib txawv raws li ob lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov khoom nro thiab kev xav tau kev loj hlob. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm kev saib xyuas cov nroj tsuag thiab kev hloov pauv hauv cov kev xav tau qis, kev lag luam thiab kev thov yuav raug hloov kho ntxiv thiab tus nqi sib txawv yuav hloov pauv. Lub caij no, qhov nce ntxiv ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom yuav ua rau tus nqi siab dua rau kev lag luam, thiab peb yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas kev lag luam kev lag luam kom daws tau cov kev pheej hmoo.