1,Qhov teeb meem kev ua lag luam: Cov txiaj ntsig poob qis ze ntawm tus nqi kab thiab chaw lag luam hloov pauv

Tsis ntev los no, lub acrylonitrilekev ua lag luam tau ntsib kev poob qis thaum ntxov, thiab cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam tau poob ze ntawm tus nqi kab. Thaum lub Rau Hli, txawm hais tias qhov kev poob qis hauv acrylonitrile qhov chaw lag luam qeeb qeeb, kev lag luam tsom tseem pom qhov kev poob qis. Nrog kev saib xyuas ntawm 260000 ton / xyoo cov cuab yeej ntawm Coral, lub khw muag khoom tau maj mam poob thiab ruaj khov. Kev yuav khoom hauv qab yog feem ntau raws li qhov xav tau nruj, thiab tag nrho cov kev lag luam tsom mus rau kev ua lag luam tau nyob twj ywm thiab ruaj khov thaum kawg ntawm lub hli. Cov lag luam feem ntau tau txais kev ceev faj tos-thiab-pom tus cwj pwm thiab tsis muaj kev ntseeg siab hauv kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej, nrog rau qee lub khw tseem muab cov nqi qis dua.

2,Supply side analysis: dual nce nyob rau hauv cov zis thiab muaj peev xwm siv

Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim khoom: Lub Rau Hli, kev tsim cov acrylonitrile units hauv Suav teb yog 316200 tons, nce 9600 tons ntawm lub hli dhau los thiab ib hlis ntawm lub hli nce ntawm 3.13%. Qhov kev loj hlob no feem ntau yog los ntawm kev rov qab los thiab rov pib dua ntawm ntau yam khoom siv hauv tsev.

Kev txhim kho kev siv peev xwm: Kev ua haujlwm ntawm acrylonitrile thaum Lub Rau Hli yog 79.79%, ib hlis ntawm lub hli nce ntawm 4.91%, thiab ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 11.08%. Kev siv lub peev xwm nce ntxiv qhia tau hais tias cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tau siv zog ua kom cov khoom tsim tawm kom tau raws li kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam.

Cov kev cia siab rau yav tom ntej: Cov khoom siv tu vaj tse ntawm Shandong Korur nrog lub peev xwm ntawm 260000 tons / xyoo tau teem sijhawm rov pib dua thaum Lub Xya Hli, thiab tsis muaj kev npaj hloov cov khoom siv ntxiv tam sim no. Zuag qhia tag nrho, qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev xa khoom rau Lub Xya Hli tseem tsis hloov pauv, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom acrylonitrile tab tom ntsib cov khoom xa tuaj. Txawm li cas los xij, qee lub tuam txhab tuaj yeem siv cov kev ntsuas txo qis los tiv thaiv kev lag luam thiab kev thov tsis sib haum.

3,Kev txheeb xyuas qhov kev thov qis qis: ruaj khov nrog cov kev hloov pauv, cuam tshuam tseem ceeb ntawm kev thov tawm ntawm lub caij nyoog

ABS kev lag luam: Lub Xya Hli, muaj cov phiaj xwm txo qis ntawm qee cov khoom siv ABS hauv Suav teb, tab sis tseem muaj kev cia siab rau kev tsim cov khoom siv tshiab. Tam sim no, ABS qhov chaw cov khoom lag luam yog siab, qhov kev thov qis qis yog nyob rau lub caij tawm, thiab kev siv cov khoom lag luam qeeb.

Kev lag luam Acrylic fiber ntau: Kev siv tus nqi ntawm acrylic fiber ntau muaj peev xwm nce 33.48% ntawm lub hli mus rau 80.52%, nrog rau kev nce ntxiv xyoo ib xyoos. Txawm li cas los xij, vim qhov kev xa khoom txuas ntxiv los ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom loj, nws xav tias qhov kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi yuav nyob ib ncig ntawm 80%, thiab tag nrho cov kev xav tau sab hauv yuav ruaj khov.

Kev lag luam Acrylamide: Kev siv tus nqi ntawm acrylamide ntau lawm muaj peev xwm nce 7.18% nyob rau lub hli rau 58.70%, nrog rau ib xyoos ib zaug nce. Tab sis kev thov xa mus qeeb, kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam nce, thiab kev ua haujlwm tau hloov mus rau 50-60%.

4,Ntshuam thiab xa tawm qhov xwm txheej: Kev loj hlob ntau lawm ua rau txo qis hauv kev xa tawm, thaum xa tawm xav tias yuav nce ntxiv

Txo cov ntim ntshuam: Nyob rau theem pib, kev tsim khoom hauv tsev tau txo qis, ua rau cov khoom siv hauv zos nruj thiab txhawb nqa kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, pib txij lub Rau Hli, nrog rau kev rov pib dua ntawm ntau yam khoom siv hauv cov chaw tsim khoom hauv tsev, nws cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam yuav poob qis, kwv yees li ntawm 6000 tons.

Export ntim nce: Nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, Tuam Tshoj tus acrylonitrile export ntim yog 12900 tons, ib tug txo qis piv rau lub hli dhau los. Txawm li cas los xij, nrog kev nce hauv kev tsim khoom hauv tsev, nws cia siab tias cov khoom xa tawm yuav nce rau lub Rau Hli thiab dhau mus, nrog kwv yees li 18000 tons.

5,Kev pom yav tom ntej: Muab ob npaug rau kev xa khoom thiab kev thov, tus nqi yuav nyob twj ywm tsis muaj zog thiab ruaj khov

Kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov: Los ntawm 2023 txog 2024, propylene muaj peev xwm tsim tau nyob rau ntawm nws lub ncov, thiab nws cia siab tias acrylonitrile muaj peev xwm yuav loj hlob ntxiv. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lub peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab ntawm kev lag luam hauv qab xws li ABS yuav maj mam tso tawm, thiab qhov kev thov rau acrylonitrile yuav nce ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, tag nrho, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv tseem yuav nrawm dua li qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov, ua rau nws nyuaj rau kev hloov pauv sai sai ntawm cov khoom lag luam oversupply.

Tus nqi sib txawv: Nrog rau qhov sib txawv ntawm ob qhov kev nce ntxiv hauv cov khoom siv thiab kev thov, tus nqi ntawm acrylonitrile yuav tsum muaj kev ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog thiab ruaj khov. Txawm hais tias qhov nce hauv cov peev txheej hauv qab no tuaj yeem muab qee qhov kev thov txhawb nqa, xav txog kev poob qis hauv ntiaj teb kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev tawm tsam los ntawm kev xa tawm, tus nqi nruab nrab tuaj yeem txo qis dua piv rau 2023.

Txoj cai cuam tshuam: Pib txij xyoo 2024, kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm acrylonitrile hauv Suav teb yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig ncaj qha rau kev zom cov khoom siv hauv tsev ntau dhau acrylonitrile, tab sis nws kuj xav kom cov neeg xa khoom hauv tsev mus txuas ntxiv nrhiav kev xa tawm kom sib npaug ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab kev thov.

Hauv cov ntsiab lus, kev lag luam acrylonitrile yog tam sim no nyob rau hauv lub zog tsis muaj zog thiab ruaj khov ua haujlwm tom qab muaj kev poob qis hauv theem pib. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog kev nce ntxiv hauv cov khoom siv thiab maj mam tso tawm cov kev xav tau qis qis, kev ua lag luam yuav ntsib qee yam khoom siv thiab kev thov siab.