1、 Recent price changes and market atmosphere in the PC market

Recently, the domestic PC market has shown a steady upward trend. Specifically, the mainstream negotiated price range for injection grade low-end materials in East China is 13900-16300 yuan/ton, while the negotiated prices for mid to high end materials are concentrated at 16650-16700 yuan/ton. Compared to the previous week, prices have generally increased by 50-200 yuan/ton. This price change reflects the subtle changes in market supply and demand, as well as the transmission effect of upstream raw material costs on PC market prices.

On the compensatory working days before the May Day holiday, the price adjustment dynamics of domestic PC factories were relatively rare. Only the bidding prices of PC factories in Shandong increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the listing prices of PC factories in Southwest China also increased, with an increase of 300 yuan/ton. This indicates that although the market trading atmosphere is average, PC supply in some regions is still tight, and manufacturers are optimistic about the future market.

From the spot market perspective, both the East and South China regions are showing a trend of rising prices. Business owners generally have a cautious and gentle mentality, with a focus on price manipulation. Downstream manufacturers mainly focus on purchasing rigid demand before the holiday, and the market trading situation is relatively stable. Overall, the market atmosphere is cautious and optimistic, and industry insiders generally expect that the PC market will continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term.

2、 Analysis of the market depth impact of anti-dumping policies on Taiwanese PC products

The Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on imported polycarbonate originating from Taiwan starting from April 20, 2024. The implementation of this policy has had a profound impact on the PC market.

1. The cost pressure on imported PC materials in Taiwan has increased sharply.   At the same time, this will also make the PC market in mainland China face more diversified supply sources, and market competition will further intensify.

1. For the long-term dull PC market, the implementation of anti-dumping policies is like a stimulant, bringing new vitality to the market. However, due to the fact that the market has already digested the positive news of anti-dumping policies in the early stage, the stimulating effect of anti-dumping policies on the market may be limited. In addition, due to the sufficient supply of domestic PC spot goods, the impact of anti-dumping policies on imported materials is difficult to directly stimulate domestic material market quotations. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and merchants have limited intentions to adjust prices, mainly maintaining stable operations.

It should be noted that the implementation of anti-dumping policies does not mean that the domestic PC market will completely break away from dependence on imported materials. On the contrary, with the continuous increase of domestic PC production capacity and the intensification of market competition, the domestic PC market will pay more attention to product quality and cost control to cope with the competitive pressure from imported materials.

3、 The acceleration of PC localization process and analysis of supply changes

In recent years, the domestic PC localization process has been accelerating, and new devices from enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical have been put into operation, providing more supply options for the domestic market. According to incomplete research data, a total of 6 PC devices in China had maintenance or shutdown plans in the second quarter, with a total production capacity of 760000 tons per year. This means that during the second quarter, the supply of the domestic PC market will be affected to a certain extent.

However, the production of the new device does not mean that the domestic PC market will completely overcome the shortage of supply. On the contrary, due to factors such as the stability of operation after the new device is put into operation and the maintenance of multiple devices, there will still be some uncertainty in the supply of the domestic PC market. Therefore, in the coming period, the supply changes in the domestic PC market will still be influenced by multiple factors.

4、 Analysis of Economic Recovery and Growth Expectations of PC Consumer Market

With the overall recovery of the domestic economy, the PC consumer market is expected to usher in new growth opportunities. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, 2024 will be a year of economic recovery and moderate inflation rebound, with an expected annual GDP growth target set at around 5.0%. This will provide a favorable macroeconomic environment for the development of the PC market.

In addition, the intensification of the consumption promotion year policy and the low base effect of some commodities will also be conducive to promoting the continued recovery of the consumption center. Service consumption is expected to shift from post pandemic recovery to sustained expansion, and the future growth rate is expected to maintain a high growth rate. These factors will provide strong support for the growth of the PC market.

However, the height of consumer recovery should not be overestimated. Although the overall economic environment is conducive to the development of the PC market, the intensification of market competition and the demand for cost control will also bring certain challenges to the growth of the PC market. Therefore, in the coming period, the growth expectation of the PC market will be influenced by multiple factors.

5、 Q2 PC Market Forecast

Entering the second quarter, the domestic PC market will be influenced by various factors. Firstly, there are still variables in the supply side of the bisphenol A market, and its price trend will have a significant impact on the PC market. It is expected that with the support of supply and cost, the market for bisphenol A will exhibit a trend of fluctuation to digestion. This will put some cost pressure on the PC market.

At the same time, the changes in supply and demand in the domestic PC market will also have a significant impact on the market. The production of new devices and the maintenance of multiple devices will create certain uncertainties in the supply side. The demand situation of downstream manufacturers will also have a significant impact on the market trend. Therefore, during the second quarter, the supply and demand changes in the PC market will become a key factor affecting the market.

Policy factors will also have a certain impact on the PC market. Especially the anti-dumping policies targeting imported materials and the support policies for the domestic PC industry will have a significant impact on the competitive landscape and supply-demand relationship in the market.