Xyoo 2022, tus nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb tau nce siab, cov nqi roj ntuj hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas tau nce siab, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv roj thiab kev xav tau hnyav zuj zus, thiab lub zog hluav taws xob hnyav zuj zus. Nrog rau qhov rov tshwm sim ntawm kev noj qab haus huv hauv tsev, kev ua lag luam tshuaj tau nkag mus rau hauv lub xeev ntawm ob lub siab ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.

Nkag mus rau xyoo 2023, cov cib fim thiab cov kev sib tw ua ke, los ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev xav tau hauv tsev los ntawm ntau txoj cai kom qhib kev tswj hwm
Nyob rau hauv daim ntawv teev cov nqi khoom muag nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Ib Hlis 2023, muaj 43 cov khoom lag luam hauv cov khoom lag luam tshuaj uas tau nce ib hlis ib hlis, suav nrog 5 cov khoom lag luam uas tau nce ntau dua 10%, suav txog 4.6% ntawm cov kev soj ntsuam. cov khoom siv hauv kev lag luam; Peb cov khoom lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus yog MIBK (18.7%), propane (17.1%), 1,4-butanediol (11.8%). Muaj 45 cov khoom lag luam nrog lub hli poob qis, thiab 6 cov khoom lag luam nrog cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua 10%, suav txog 5.6% ntawm cov khoom muag hauv cov haujlwm no; Peb cov khoom lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus hauv kev poob qis yog polysilicon (- 32.4%), thee tar (siab kub) (- 16.7%) thiab acetone (- 13.2%). Qhov nruab nrab nce thiab lub caij nplooj zeeg yog - 0.1%.
Cov npe nce ntxiv (nce ntau dua 5%)

MIBK tus nqi nce 18.7%
Tom qab Hnub Xyoo Tshiab, MIBK kev ua lag luam tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev cia siab ntawm cov khoom siv nruj. Tus nqi nruab nrab hauv tebchaws tau nce los ntawm 14766 yuan / ton rau Lub Ib Hlis 2 txog 17533 yuan / ton rau Lub Ib Hlis 13.
1. Cov khoom siv yuav tsum nruj, 50000 tons / xyoo ntawm cov khoom siv loj yuav raug kaw, thiab kev ua haujlwm hauv tsev yuav poob ntawm 80% mus rau 40%. Lub sijhawm luv luv yog xav kom nruj, uas nyuaj rau kev hloov pauv.
2. Tom qab lub Xyoo Tshiab, lub ntsiab downstream antioxidant kev lag luam replenishment, thiab downstream factories kuj replenishment tom qab ib lub sij hawm ntawm kev txiav txim me me. Raws li cov hnub caiv mus txog, qhov kev thov qis qis rau kev txiav txim me me txo qis, thiab kev tiv thaiv rau cov khoom siv raw khoom yog qhov pom tseeb. Nrog rau kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom tuaj txawv teb chaws, tus nqi maj mam mus txog nws qhov siab kawg thiab qhov nce qeeb.

Propane nqi nce 17.1%
Xyoo 2023, kev ua lag luam propane tau pib zoo, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm Shandong propane kev ua lag luam tau nce los ntawm 5082 yuan / ton ntawm 2nd mus rau 5920 yuan / ton ntawm lub 14th, nrog tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 6000 yuan / tuj ntawm 11th.
1. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm thaum ntxov, tus nqi nyob rau hauv sab qaum teb ua lag luam yog tsawg, downstream xav tau kuj ruaj khov, thiab lub enterprise zoo destocked. Tom qab kev ua koob tsheej, cov dej ntws hauv qab pib rov ntxiv cov khoom hauv theem, thaum cov khoom seem qis qis. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov ntim tsis ntev los no tuaj txog ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj yog qhov tsawg, cov khoom lag luam raug txo qis, thiab tus nqi ntawm propane pib nce siab.
2. Qee qhov PDH rov ua haujlwm dua thiab qhov kev thov rau kev lag luam tshuaj lom neeg tau nce ntxiv. Nrog rau kev txhawb nqa tsuas yog xav tau, propane tus nqi yog ib qho yooj yim nce thiab nyuaj rau poob. Tom qab hnub so, tus nqi ntawm propane tau sawv, qhia qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev muaj zog nyob rau sab qaum teb thiab tsis muaj zog nyob rau sab qab teb. Nyob rau theem pib, kev xa tawm arbitrage ntawm cov khoom qis kawg hauv kev lag luam sab qaum teb tau txo qis cov khoom muag. Vim yog tus nqi siab, cov khoom lag luam nyob rau sab qab teb tsis zoo, thiab cov nqi tau raug kho ib zaug. Raws li hnub so mus txog, qee lub chaw tsim khoom nkag mus rau hnub so, thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm tsiv teb tsaws maj mam rov qab los tsev.
1.4-Butanediol nqi nce 11.8%
Tom qab lub koob tsheej, tus nqi muag khoom ntawm kev lag luam tau nce siab, thiab tus nqi ntawm 1.4-butanediol tau nce los ntawm 9780 yuan / ton ntawm 2nd rau 10930 yuan / ton ntawm 13th.
1. Cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam tsis kam muag lub khw muag khoom. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov chaw auction thiab kev sib tw siab ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom tseem ceeb txhawb kev lag luam tsom kom nce. Ntxiv rau qhov chaw nres tsheb thiab kev saib xyuas thawj theem ntawm Tokyo Biotech, kev lag luam lub nra tau poob qis me ntsis, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv xa cov ntawv cog lus. BDO theem muab khoom yog pom tseeb zoo.
2. Nrog rau qhov nce ntawm restart load ntawm BASF cov khoom nyob rau hauv Shanghai, qhov kev thov ntawm PTMEG kev lag luam tau nce, thaum lwm yam downstream industries muaj kev hloov me ntsis, thiab qhov kev thov yog me ntsis zoo dua. Txawm li cas los xij, raws li cov hnub caiv dhau los, qee qhov nruab nrab thiab qis qis nkag mus rau lub xeev hnub so ua ntej, thiab tag nrho kev lag luam kev lag luam yog txwv.
Tso npe (tsawg dua 5%)

Acetone poob los ntawm - 13.2%
Kev lag luam acetone hauv tsev poob qis, thiab tus nqi ntawm East China factories poob los ntawm 550 yuan / tuj rau 4820 yuan / tuj.
1. Qhov kev khiav hauj lwm ntawm acetone nyob ze rau 85%, thiab cov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom muag tau nce mus rau 32000 tons ntawm 9th, nce sai, thiab cov khoom siv siab tau nce. Nyob rau hauv lub siab ntawm lub Hoobkas cov khoom muag, tus tuav muaj kev txaus siab rau cov khoom xa tuaj. Nrog rau kev tsim khoom zoo ntawm Shenghong Refining thiab Tshuaj Phenol Ketone Cog, cov khoom siv siab yuav tsum nce ntxiv.
2. Kev yuav khoom hauv qab ntawm acetone yog qeeb. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam qis MIBK tau nce siab, qhov kev thov tsis txaus los txo qhov kev khiav hauj lwm mus rau qhov qis. Intermediary kev koom tes yog tsawg. Lawv poob qis thaum kev lag luam kev lag luam tsis quav ntsej. Nrog kev poob qis ntawm kev ua lag luam, qhov poob siab ntawm phenolic ketone cov lag luam nce. Feem ntau cov chaw tsim khoom tos lub khw kom meej meej ua ntej kev yuav khoom tom qab hnub so. Nyob rau hauv lub siab ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev lag luam nres poob thiab sawv. Kev ua lag luam maj mam ua kom pom tseeb tom qab hnub so.
Kev tshuaj xyuas tom qab muag
Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm cov roj av qis, cov cua daj cua dub tsis ntev los no tau tsoo hauv Tebchaws Meskas, thiab cov roj av yuav tsum muaj kev cuam tshuam tsawg, thiab cov nqi txhawb rau cov khoom siv petrochemical yuav tsis muaj zog. Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, kev lag luam roj tsis yog tsuas yog ntsib nrog macro siab thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis kuj tau ntsib nrog kev ua si ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov. Ntawm cov khoom muag, muaj kev pheej hmoo tias Russia cov khoom lag luam yuav poob qis. OEPC + kev tsim khoom txo qis yuav txhawb nqa hauv qab. Hais txog kev thov, nws tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawm macro-cycle inhibition, sluggish thov inhibition hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab xav tau kev loj hlob hauv Asia. Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm macro thiab micro txoj haujlwm ntev thiab luv, cov roj lag luam feem ntau yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv.
Los ntawm kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, cov kev cai nyiaj txiag hauv tsev kom meej meej ua raws li lub voj voog loj hauv tsev thiab ua txoj haujlwm zoo ntawm thoob ntiaj teb thiab ob lub voj voog hauv tsev. Nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm tom qab kis mob, nws tau muaj kev ywj pheej tag nrho, tab sis qhov tsis muaj tseeb yog tias lub koom haum tseem tsis muaj zog thiab kev tos-thiab-pom mus rau qhov mob hnyav tom qab qhov mob. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm terminals, domestic tswj txoj cai tau optimized, thiab logistics thiab cov neeg siv kev ntseeg siab tau rov qab los. Txawm li cas los xij, luv luv terminals xav tau lub caij so ntawm Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav, thiab nws yuav nyuaj rau muaj kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv lub sijhawm rov qab los.
Xyoo 2023, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam yuav rov qab tau qeeb, tab sis nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb poob qis thiab kev cia siab tias yuav muaj kev lag luam loj hlob hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam xa tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem yuav ntsib cov teeb meem. Xyoo 2023, kev tsim tshuaj lom neeg muaj peev xwm tseem yuav loj hlob tsis tu ncua. Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los, lub peev xwm tsim tshuaj nyob hauv tsev tau nce tsis tu ncua, nrog 80% ntawm cov khoom siv tshuaj tseem ceeb uas qhia txog kev loj hlob thiab tsuas yog 5% ntawm cov peev txheej tsim tau poob qis. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, tau tsav los ntawm kev txhawb nqa cov cuab yeej thiab cov nyiaj tau los, kev tsim tshuaj lom neeg muaj peev xwm yuav nthuav dav ntxiv, thiab kev lag luam kev sib tw yuav muaj zog ntxiv. Cov lag luam uas nyuaj los tsim cov khoom lag luam zoo hauv lub neej yav tom ntej yuav ntsib cov txiaj ntsig lossis kev nyuaj siab, tab sis tseem yuav tshem tawm cov peev txheej rov qab. Hauv 2023, ntau cov lag luam loj thiab nruab nrab yuav tsom mus rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam hauv qab. Nrog kev ua haujlwm tsis tu ncua hauv kev siv thev naus laus zis hauv tsev, kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, cov khoom siv tshiab high-end, electrolytes thiab cua fais fab kev lag luam chains tau nce nqi los ntawm cov lag luam loj. Raws li keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm ob chav carbon, cov lag luam rov qab yuav raug tshem tawm ntawm qhov nrawm nrawm.