1 、 Kev ua lag luam tus nqi hloov pauv thiab cov qauv

Hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo 2024, kev lag luam hauv tsev rau bisphenol A tau ntsib kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua nyob rau hauv qhov ntau, thiab thaum kawg tau pom qhov poob qis. Qhov nruab nrab tus nqi lag luam rau lub quarter no yog 9889 yuan / tuj, nce 1.93% piv rau lub quarter dhau los, nce mus txog 187 yuan / ton. Qhov kev hloov pauv no feem ntau yog vim qhov kev xav tau tsis muaj zog thaum lub caij ua haujlwm tawm (Lub Xya Hli thiab Lub Yim Hli), nrog rau kev nce ntxiv rau lub sijhawm kaw thiab kev saib xyuas hauv kev lag luam hauv qab epoxy resin, uas ua rau muaj kev lag luam tsawg thiab cov tuam txhab ntsib teeb meem hauv kev xa khoom. Txawm hais tias tus nqi siab, kev lag luam poob tau nce zuj zus, thiab muaj chaw txwv rau cov neeg muag khoom kom tau txais txiaj ntsig. Cov nqi lag luam nquag hloov pauv hauv thaj tsam ntawm 9800-10000 yuan / tuj hauv East China. Nkag mus rau "Golden Nine", qhov txo qis hauv kev saib xyuas thiab kev nce hauv cov khoom tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau ntxiv rau cov khoom lag luam hauv khw. Txawm hais tias tus nqi them nyiaj yug, tus nqi ntawm bisphenol A tseem nyuaj rau kev ruaj khov, thiab qhov tshwm sim ntawm lub caij nyoog qis tshaj yog pom tseeb.

2 、 Muaj peev xwm nthuav dav thiab tso tawm kev loj hlob

Hauv lub quarter thib peb, lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev ntawm bisphenol A mus txog 5.835 lab tons, nce ntawm 240000 tons piv rau lub quarter thib ob, feem ntau yog los ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm Huizhou Phase II cog nyob rau sab qab teb Suav. Hais txog kev tsim khoom, cov khoom tsim tawm hauv lub quarter thib peb yog 971900 tons, nce 7.12% piv rau lub quarter dhau los, nce mus txog 64600 tons. Qhov kev loj hlob no yog los ntawm kev cuam tshuam ob ntawm cov cuab yeej tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm thiab txo cov khoom siv tu, ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv kev tsim khoom hauv tsev bisphenol A.

3, Downstream industries pib nce ntau lawm

Txawm hais tias tsis muaj peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm hauv lub quarter thib peb, kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm downstream PC thiab epoxy resin industries tau nce. Qhov nruab nrab kev khiav hauj lwm load ntawm PC kev lag luam yog 78.47%, nce 3.59% piv rau lub sijhawm dhau los; Qhov nruab nrab kev khiav hauj lwm load ntawm epoxy resin kev lag luam yog 53.95%, nce ntawm 3.91% lub hli. Qhov no qhia tau hais tias qhov kev thov rau bisphenol A nyob rau hauv ob qho kev lag luam downstream tau nce, muab qee qhov kev txhawb nqa rau cov nqi lag luam.

4 、 Kev nce nqi siab thiab kev lag luam poob

Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib peb, qhov theoretical qhov nruab nrab tus nqi ntawm bisphenol A kev lag luam tau nce mus rau 11078 yuan / ton, ib hlis ntawm lub hli nce ntawm 3.44%, feem ntau yog vim qhov nce ntawm raw khoom phenol nqi. Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam nruab nrab cov txiaj ntsig tau poob mus rau -1138 yuan / ton, qhov txo qis ntawm 7.88% piv rau lub sijhawm dhau los, qhia tias muaj nuj nqis loj heev hauv kev lag luam thiab ntxiv kev puas tsuaj ntawm qhov poob. Txawm hais tias qhov poob ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw acetone tau raug offset, tag nrho cov nqi tseem tsis zoo rau kev lag luam profitability.

5, Kev lag luam kwv yees rau lub quarter thib plaub

1) Tus nqi kwv yees

Nws cia siab tias nyob rau lub quarter thib plaub, yuav muaj kev saib xyuas tsawg dua ntawm lub Hoobkas phenol ketone, thiab ua ke nrog kev tuaj txog ntawm cov khoom tuaj ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj, cov khoom ntawm phenol hauv khw yuav nce, thiab muaj peev xwm ntawm cov nqi poob. . Kev ua lag luam acetone, ntawm qhov tod tes, yuav tsum muaj kev hloov pauv qis hauv tus nqi vim muaj cov khoom siv ntau. Cov kev hloov pauv hauv cov khoom ntawm phenolic ketones yuav ua rau kev lag luam sib txawv thiab ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab rau tus nqi ntawm bisphenol A.

2) Supply side forecast

Muaj qee qhov kev npaj tu tsev rau cov nroj tsuag hauv tsev bisphenol A hauv lub quarter thib plaub, tsuas yog qee qhov kev kho me me hauv thaj chaw Changshu thiab Ningbo. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, muaj kev cia siab rau kev tso tawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm tshiab hauv cheeb tsam Shandong, thiab nws xav tias cov khoom siv ntawm bisphenol A yuav muaj ntau nyob rau lub quarter thib plaub.

3) Outlook ntawm kev thov sab

Kev saib xyuas kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam qis qis qis dua, tab sis kev lag luam epoxy resin cuam tshuam los ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau tsis sib xws, thiab kev tsim khoom yuav tsum nyob twj ywm rau theem qis. Txawm hais tias muaj kev cia siab rau cov cuab yeej tshiab yuav tsum tau muab tso rau hauv kev lag luam hauv PC, kev saib xyuas yuav tsum tau them rau qhov kev tsim khoom tiag tiag thiab qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov phiaj xwm kev saib xyuas ntawm kev ua haujlwm. Zuag qhia tag nrho, qhov kev thov qis qis tsis zoo li yuav muaj kev loj hlob tseem ceeb hauv lub quarter thib plaub.

Raws li kev txheeb xyuas tag nrho ntawm tus nqi, kev muab khoom, thiab kev xav tau, nws xav tias kev lag luam bisphenol A yuav ua haujlwm tsis muaj zog hauv lub quarter thib plaub. Kev them nyiaj yug tus nqi tau poob qis, kev cia siab ntawm cov khoom tau nce, thiab qhov kev thov qis qis yog qhov nyuaj rau kev txhim kho loj. Kev lag luam poob qhov xwm txheej tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv lossis txawm tias hnyav dua. Yog li ntawd, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov kev txo qis ntawm cov khoom thauj tsis tau npaj tseg thiab kev saib xyuas kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam volatility.