Los ntawm 2015-2021, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam bisphenol A, nrog kev loj hlob ntau lawm thiab kev txhim kho ruaj khov. Xyoo 2021 Tuam Tshoj txoj kev tsim khoom bisphenol A xav tias yuav ncav cuag li 1.7 lab tons, thiab kev nthuav dav qhib tus nqi ntawm cov khoom loj bisphenol A yog li 77%, uas yog nyob rau theem siab. Nws cia siab tias pib txij xyoo 2022, nrog rau kev tsim kho bisphenol A cov cuab yeej ua haujlwm ib zaug, kev tsim khoom txhua xyoo yuav tsum maj mam nce. 2016-2020 Tuam Tshoj lub bisphenol A kev lag luam imports maj mam loj hlob, cov ntshuam dependence ntawm lub lag luam bisphenol A yog ze rau 30%. Nws cia siab tias nrog kev nce ntxiv hauv cov peev txheej tsim khoom hauv tsev yav tom ntej, kev cia siab ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm bisphenol A xav tias yuav poob mus ntxiv.

Bisphenol Ib qho kev lag luam hauv qab cov qauv xav tau yog cov concentrated, feem ntau yog siv rau PC thiab epoxy resin, yuav luag ib nrab ntawm txhua qhov kev faib ua feem. 2021 xav tias yuav bisphenol A pom meej noj ntawm kwv yees li 2.19 lab tons, nce 2% piv nrog 2020. Nyob rau yav tom ntej, raws li cov downstream PC thiab epoxy resin cov cuab yeej tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua lag luam, kev lag luam xav tau bisphenol A yuav tsum. nce loj heev.

PC tshiab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm, rub lub bisphenol A kev lag luam xav tau kev loj hlob. Tuam Tshoj yog ib tug importer ntawm polycarbonate, ntshuam hloov yuav tsum ceev. Raws li BCF cov ntaub ntawv txheeb xyuas, xyoo 2020, Tuam Tshoj lub PC tsim tawm ntawm 819,000 tons, nqis 19.6% xyoo-rau-xyoo, kev xa tawm ntawm 1.63 lab tons, nce 1.9%, xa tawm txog 251,000 tons, pom meej noj ntawm 2.198 lab tons, nqis 7.0%. xyoo-rau-xyoo, tus kheej txaus tus nqi tsuas yog 37.3%, Tuam Tshoj tus Kev thov ceev rau PC ntshuam.

Los ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus rau Lub Kaum Hli 2021, Tuam Tshoj lub PC ntau lawm ntawm 702,600 tons, nqis 0.38% xyoo-rau-xyoo, cov khoom siv PC hauv tsev ntawm 1.088 lab tons, nqis 10.0% xyoo-rau-xyoo, xa tawm ntawm 254,000 tons, nce 41.1% xyoo. -on-xyoo, nrog Tuam Tshoj tus tshiab PC tsim muaj peev xwm tau muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm, cov ntshuam dependence yuav tsum tau mus ntxiv mus. sawv.

Kev lag luam cua fais fab, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab lwm yam kev lag luam tsav epoxy resin txuas ntxiv mus. Cov ntawv thov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev yog txheej txheej, cov ntaub ntawv sib xyaw, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab hluav taws xob thiab cov khoom siv nplaum, thiab daim ntawv thov piv ntawm txhua qhov hauv xyoo tas los no tseem nyob ruaj khov, suav txog 35%, 30%, 26% thiab 9% feem. .

Nws cia siab tias nyob rau hauv 5 xyoos tom ntej no, ntawm ntau cov kev siv downstream ntawm epoxy resin, epoxy resin rau cov ntaub ntawv sib xyaw thiab peev kev tsim kho, yuav dhau los ua qhov chaw tseem ceeb los txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm epoxy resin tso zis. Qhov kev thov kom muaj zog cua, kev tsim kho thiab kev saib xyuas ntawm kev kub ceev railways, txoj kev loj, subways thiab tshav dav hlau hauv kev tsim kho hauv nroog yuav tsav kev txhim kho ntawm epoxy resin. Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nrog kev txhawb nqa ntawm "Ib Txoj Kev Siv, Ib Txoj Kev", qhov kev thov rau epoxy resin yuav nce siab heev.

PCB kev lag luam yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb ntawm daim ntawv thov ntawm epoxy resin hauv hluav taws xob thiab hluav taws xob, cov khoom tseem ceeb ntawm PCB yog tooj liab clad board, epoxy resin nyiaj li ntawm 15% ntawm tus nqi ntawm tooj liab clad board. Nrog rau kev hloov pauv sai ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tiam tshiab xws li cov ntaub ntawv loj, Internet ntawm Yam, kev txawj ntse, 5G, thiab lwm yam, raws li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv kev lag luam, qhov kev thov thiab kev loj hlob ntawm tooj liab clad board yuav tsum tau nthuav tawm xyoo los ntawm xyoo.

Bisphenol A kev lag luam yog nyob rau hauv lub voj voog siab, peb xav tias qhov kev thov qis qis rau bisphenol A kev ua lag luam tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom raws li lub sijhawm, tam sim no bisphenol A kev lag luam downstream epoxy resin muaj 1.54 lab tons ntawm kev tsim kho, PC muaj 1.425 lab tons. muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv kev tsim kho, cov peev txheej no tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom hauv 2-3 xyoos tom ntej, qhov kev thov rau bisphenol A kev lag luam muaj zog rub. Kev muab khoom, bisphenol A tus kheej muab los tswj kev loj hlob tsim nyog, tam sim no bisphenol A muaj peev xwm tsim tau 2.83 lab tons, cov peev txheej no tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm hauv 2-3 xyoos, tom qab kev lag luam kev loj hlob feem ntau yog raws li kev sib koom ua ke, ib txheej ntawm cov cuab yeej muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm ib leeg los txo qhov xwm txheej, kev lag luam loj hlob mus rau theem tsim nyog.

2021-2030 Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam bisphenol A tseem muaj 5.52 lab tons ntawm cov haujlwm hauv kev tsim kho / xyoo, 2.73 npaug ntawm lub peev xwm ntawm 2.025 lab tons / xyoo thaum kawg ntawm 2020, nws tuaj yeem pom tau tias yav tom ntej bisphenol A kev lag luam kev sib tw muaj zog dua, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau hauv kev ua lag luam yuav raug thim rov qab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov neeg tuaj tshiab, kev ua haujlwm thiab kev lag luam ib puag ncig yuav dhau los ua mob siab ntxiv.

Los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2020 lub hli domestic bisphenol A nyob rau hauv ntau lawm 11 tuam txhab uas muag, muaj peev xwm ntawm 2.025 lab tons, uas 1.095 lab tons ntawm txawv teb chaws lag luam, 630,000 tons ntawm private, sib koom ua lag luam muaj peev xwm ntawm 300,000 tons, feem, accounting rau 54%, 31 %, 15%. Los ntawm 2021 txog 2030, Tuam Tshoj lub bisphenol A kev lag luam npaj, npaj cov haujlwm hauv kev tsim kho nrog tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 5.52 lab tons, muaj peev xwm tsim tau tseem nyob hauv East Tuam Tshoj, tab sis nrog kev nthuav dav ntawm kev lag luam hauv qab PC, South China, Northeast, Central Tuam Tshoj. thiab lwm qhov chaw ntawm kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm, thaum lub domestic bisphenol A kev lag luam muaj peev xwm faib kev pab them nqi yuav zoo dua, thaum nrog kev maj mam commissioning ntawm qhov project, bisphenol A kev ua lag luam khoom. tsawg dua li cov xwm txheej ntawm qhov kev thov kuj tseem yuav maj mam Qhov xwm txheej uas cov khoom lag luam BPA tsawg dua qhov kev thov yuav maj mam txo qis, thiab cov peev txheej yuav tsum tau ua.

2010-2020 nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm bisphenol A kev ua lag luam muaj peev xwm, ntau lawm qhia tau hais tias muaj kev loj hlob tseem ceeb, thaum lub sijhawm muaj peev xwm nce ntxiv ntawm 14.3%, kev tsim cov khoom sib xyaw ua ke ntawm 17.1%, kev lag luam pib tus nqi feem ntau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev ua lag luam. tus nqi, kev lag luam cov nyiaj tau los thiab poob thiab lub sijhawm ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov khoom siv tshiab, uas tau mus txog qhov pib nce siab tshaj plaws ntawm 85.6% hauv 2019. 2021, nrog rau tus tshiab bisphenol A Bisphenol A kev lag luam oversupply yuav tsum intensified nyob rau hauv 2021-2025, tag nrho cov pib tus nqi ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub bisphenol A kev ua lag luam yuav tsum qhia ib tug downward trend, uas ua rau poob rau hauv tus nqi pib rau cov nram qab no yog vim li cas: 1. 2021 -2025 Tuam Tshoj lub bisphenol A cov khoom siv ntxiv xyoo dhau los, thaum cov khoom tso tawm tom qab muaj peev xwm, ua rau 2021-2025 pib tus nqi poob; 2. Nqe downward siab yog loj, kev lag luam cov nyiaj khwv tau los maj mam ploj mus, raug rau cov nqi ntau lawm thiab cov txiaj ntsig, qhov poob ntawm lub sij hawm thaum lub hom phiaj ntau lawm yog tsawg; 3. Muaj kev saib xyuas txhua xyoo ntawm kev lag luam, txij li 30-45 hnub, kev saib xyuas kev lag luam cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam pib tus nqi.

Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev loj hlob tseem ceeb hauv kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm nrog rau kev poob qis ntawm qhov pib pib yuav tsum, qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm yav tom ntej tau nce ntau. Kev lag luam concentration, lub peev xwm CR4 suav txog 68% hauv 2020, nqis mus rau 27% hauv 2030, tuaj yeem qhia tau tias muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv bisphenol A cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam, cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam yuav muaj kev poob qis hauv cov xwm txheej; Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, vim hais tias bisphenol A kev lag luam downstream xav tau yog tshwj xeeb hauv epoxy resins thiab polycarbonate, kev faib tawm yog concentrated thiab cov neeg siv khoom loj yog txwv, qib ntawm kev sib tw yav tom ntej bisphenol A kev lag luam intensified, lub enterprise nyob rau hauv kev txiav txim kom muaj kev sib koom ua lag luam, kev tsim cov tswv yim muag khoom yuav hloov tau yooj yim dua.

Kev lag luam khoom lag luam thiab kev thov, tom qab 2021, kev lag luam bisphenol A yuav rov ua dua tshiab ntawm kev nthuav dav, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau 10 xyoo tom ntej, bisphenol A muaj peev xwm ua kom muaj peev xwm loj hlob ntawm 9.9%, thaum cov khoom siv qis qis ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm 7.3%, bisphenol A kev ua lag luam overcapacity, oversupply contradictions tseem ceeb, ib feem ntawm cov neeg pluag kev sib tw ntawm bisphenol A ntau lawm tuam txhab uas muag tej zaum yuav ntsib nrog cov teeb meem ntawm tsis txaus. rov qab pib, kev siv cov cuab yeej.

Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej muaj peev xwm loj hlob thiab pib nce tus nqi poob qis hauv cov ntaub ntawv xav tau, qhov ntws ntawm cov peev txheej rau cov phiaj xwm yav tom ntej thiab cov kev taw qhia ntawm kev siv qis qis tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov haujlwm uas twb muaj lawm thiab yav tom ntej.

Kev noj qab haus huv ntawm Suav bisphenol A kev lag luam feem ntau muaj epoxy resin thiab polycarbonate. 2015-2018 epoxy resin noj tau suav rau qhov loj tshaj plaws, tab sis nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm PC ntau lawm, epoxy resin noj suav nrog kev poob qis. 2019-2020 PC tsim muaj peev xwm nthuav dav, thaum epoxy resin ntau lawm muaj peev xwm kuj ruaj khov, PC pib account rau ntau tshaj epoxy resin, PC noj nyob rau hauv 2020 suav txog li 49%, ua qhov loj tshaj plaws downstream share. Tuam Tshoj tam sim no muaj peev xwm ntau dhau ntawm cov txheej txheem epoxy resin, cov khoom siv zoo thiab cov cuab yeej tshwj xeeb yog qhov nyuaj dua rau kev tawg, tab sis los ntawm kev txhim kho cua zog, tsheb, hluav taws xob thiab hluav taws xob, kev tsim kho vaj tse, cov txheej txheem epoxy resin thiab polycarbonate noj kom zoo. kev loj hlob zog. 2021-2025, txawm hais tias zoo thiab tshwj xeeb epoxy resin thiab PC synchronous expansion, tab sis lub PC expansion scale yog loj, thiab PC ib qho kev noj piv yog ntau dua li Epoxy resin, yog li nws yuav tsum tau nthuav dav PC noj piv rau xyoo 2025. ncav cuag 52%, yog li los ntawm cov qauv kev noj qab haus huv, cov khoom siv PC rau yav tom ntej bisphenol A qhov project tsom rau kev mloog. Tab sis nws yuav tsum tau muab sau tseg tias tam sim no PC tshiab li upstream ntau txhawb bisphenol A, yog li cov kev taw qhia ntawm epoxy resin tseem yuav tsum tau ib tug tseem ceeb ntxiv tsom xam.

Raws li rau cov neeg siv khoom lag luam tseem ceeb, tsis muaj cov neeg tsim khoom loj BPA thiab tsis muaj cov neeg siv khoom loj hauv Northwest thiab Northeast Tuam Tshoj, yog li tsis muaj kev ntsuam xyuas tseem ceeb yuav ua tiav ntawm no. Tuam Tshoj sab hnub tuaj xav tias yuav tig los ntawm kev xa khoom tsis txaus mus rau kev xa khoom ntau dhau xyoo 2023-2024. North Tuam Tshoj yeej ib txwm oversupplied. Central Tuam Tshoj ib txwm tswj hwm qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv. Kev lag luam South Tuam Tshoj hloov pauv los ntawm kev xa khoom tsis txaus mus rau oversupply nyob rau hauv 2022-2023 thiab mus rau hnyav oversupply nyob rau hauv 2025. Nws xav tias los ntawm 2025, BPA kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj yuav dominated los ntawm kev noj cov khoom siv peripheral thiab cov nqi qis los txeeb lub khw. Nws tau pom zoo tias BPA cov tuam txhab tuaj yeem txiav txim siab xa tawm raws li kev coj noj coj ua tseem ceeb thaum xav txog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov nqi qis tshaj tawm mus rau thaj chaw tseem ceeb.