Txij li thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli, tus nqi ntawm styrene tau nce mus txog ze li ntawm 940 yuan / tuj, hloov qhov kev poob qis hauv lub quarter thib ob, yuam cov neeg lag luam sab hauv uas muag luv luv styrene kom txo lawv txoj haujlwm. Puas yuav muaj kev loj hlob poob qis dua qhov kev cia siab dua nyob rau lub Yim Hli? Txawm hais tias qhov kev thov rau Jinjiu tuaj yeem tso tawm ua ntej yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev txiav txim siab seb tus nqi ntawm styrene tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv muaj zog.
Muaj peb lub laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev nce nqi ntawm styrene nyob rau lub Xya Hli: ua ntej, kev nce siab hauv cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb tau ua rau muaj kev txhim kho hauv macroeconomic sentiment; Qhov thib ob, kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom lag luam yog qis dua qhov xav tau, ua rau txo qis hauv styrene ntau lawm, ncua kev rov pib dua ntawm cov khoom siv tu, thiab tsis tau npaj kaw cov khoom siv ntau lawm; Thib peb, qhov kev thov rau kev xa tawm tsis tau npaj tau nce ntxiv.
Cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb tseem nce ntxiv, thiab kev xav ntawm macroeconomic zoo dua
Thaum Lub Xya Hli ntawm lub xyoo no, cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb tau pib nce, nrog kev nce ntxiv hauv thawj kaum hnub thiab tom qab ntawd hloov pauv ntawm qib siab. Cov laj thawj ntawm kev nce nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb suav nrog: 1. Saudi Arabia yeem txuas ntxiv nws cov khoom txo qis thiab xa cov teeb liab mus rau kev lag luam kom ruaj khov rau kev lag luam roj; 2. Cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas CPI qis dua qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev ua lag luam, ua rau cov nyiaj tsis muaj zog. Kev ua lag luam kev cia siab rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve kom nce cov paj paj xyoo no tau txo qis, thiab nws xav tias yuav nce paj paj ntxiv rau lub Xya Hli, tab sis tej zaum yuav ncua rau lub Cuaj Hli. Tawm tsam keeb kwm yav dhau los ntawm kev txo qis tus nqi nce siab thiab cov nyiaj tsis muaj zog hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai hauv kev lag luam khoom lag luam tau rov zoo, thiab cov roj av tseem nce ntxiv. Qhov nce hauv cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb tau ua rau tus nqi ntawm benzene ntshiab. Txawm hais tias qhov nce ntawm cov nqi styrene thaum Lub Xya Hli tsis tau tsav los ntawm cov ntshiab benzene, nws tsis tau rub tus nqi nce ntawm styrene. Los ntawm daim duab 1, nws tuaj yeem pom tias qhov nce siab ntawm cov ntshiab benzene tsis zoo li ntawm styrene, thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm styrene tseem txhim kho.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov huab cua macro kuj tau hloov pauv lub hlis no, nrog rau kev tso tawm yav tom ntej ntawm cov ntaub ntawv cuam tshuam los txhawb kev noj haus txhawb kev lag luam kev xav. Kev ua lag luam yuav tsum muaj cov cai cuam tshuam ntawm Lub Rooj Sib Tham Kev Lag Luam ntawm Central Politburo thaum Lub Xya Hli, thiab kev ua haujlwm tau ceev faj.
Kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom siv styrene qis dua li qhov xav tau, thiab cov khoom muag chaw nres nkoj tau poob qis dua qhov nce
Thaum cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau sib npaug rau Lub Xya Hli tau kwv yees nyob rau lub Rau Hli, nws xav tias kev tsim khoom hauv tsev hauv Lub Xya Hli yuav nyob ib puag ncig 1.38 lab tons, thiab cov khoom lag luam sib raug zoo yuav nyob ib puag ncig 50000 tons. Txawm li cas los xij, kev hloov pauv uas tsis tau npaj tseg ua rau qis dua qhov kev xav tau nce hauv styrene ntau lawm, thiab tsis yog qhov nce ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj tseem ceeb, nws txo qis.
1. cuam tshuam los ntawm lub hom phiaj tseem ceeb, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom sib xyaw uas muaj feem xyuam rau toluene thiab xylene tau nce sai, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov roj alkylated thiab cov khoom sib xyaw uas muaj ntxhiab hydrocarbons, uas tau txhawb kev nce hauv kev thov hauv tsev rau kev sib xyaw ntawm toluene thiab xylene, uas ua rau muaj zog nce ntxiv. tus nqi. Yog li ntawd, tus nqi ntawm ethylbenzene tau nce ntxiv. Rau cov tuam txhab tsim khoom styrene, qhov ua tau zoo ntawm ethylbenzene yam tsis muaj dehydrogenation yog zoo dua li dehydrogenation tawm los ntawm styrene, uas ua rau txo qis hauv styrene ntau lawm. Nws tau nkag siab tias tus nqi ntawm dehydrogenation yog kwv yees li 400-500 yuan / tuj. Thaum tus nqi sib txawv ntawm styrene thiab ethylbenzene yog ntau dua 400-500 yuan / ton, zus tau tej cov styrene yog zoo dua, thiab vice versa. Thaum Lub Xya Hli, vim qhov txo qis hauv ethylbenzene ntau lawm, kev tsim cov styrene yog kwv yees li 80-90000 tons, uas yog ib qho laj thawj vim li cas qhov chaw nres nkoj tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom muag tsis nce.
2. Kev saib xyuas ntawm styrene units yog qhov tseem ceeb txij lub Tsib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli. Thawj txoj kev npaj yog rov pib dua thaum Lub Xya Hli, nrog rau feem ntau ntawm nws tau tsom mus rau nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli. Txawm li cas los xij, vim qee lub hom phiaj, cov khoom siv feem ntau qeeb hauv kev rov pib dua; Kev tsav tsheb thauj khoom ntawm cov cuab yeej tshiab yog qis dua qhov xav tau, thiab cov load tseem nyob ntawm qhov nruab nrab mus rau theem qis. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov nroj tsuag styrene xws li Tianjin Dagu thiab Hainan Refining thiab Tshuaj kuj tseem muaj kev kaw tsis tau npaj tseg, ua rau poob rau kev tsim khoom hauv tsev.
Cov khoom siv txawv teb chaws raug kaw, ua rau muaj kev nce ntxiv hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev npaj xa tawm rau styrene
Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub hlis no, cov nroj tsuag styrene nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau npaj yuav tsum tsis ua hauj lwm, thaum lub sij hawm tu cov nroj tsuag nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe tau npaj. Cov nqi nce sai, qhov rais arbitrage qhib, thiab qhov kev thov rau arbitrage nce. Cov tub luam nquag koom nrog hauv kev sib tham, thiab twb muaj kev lag luam xa tawm. Hauv ob lub lis piam dhau los, tag nrho cov khoom lag luam xa tawm tau nyob ib puag ncig 29000 tons, feem ntau tau teeb tsa thaum Lub Yim Hli, feem ntau hauv Kaus Lim Qab Teb. Txawm hais tias Suav cov khoom tsis raug xa ncaj qha mus rau Tebchaws Europe, tom qab kev txhim kho kev lag luam zoo, kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom tsis ncaj qha ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv hauv European kev taw qhia, thiab kev saib xyuas tau them rau seb kev lag luam puas tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus rau yav tom ntej. Tam sim no, nws tau nkag siab tias kev tsim cov khoom siv hauv Tebchaws Meskas yuav raug txiav tawm lossis yuav rov qab los thaum lub Xya Hli.nd thaum lub Yim Hli, thaum kwv yees li 2 lab tons ntawm cov khoom siv hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav raug txiav tawm hauv cov theem tom ntej. Yog tias lawv txuas ntxiv tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj, lawv tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov kev loj hlob hauv kev tsim khoom hauv tsev.
Qhov xwm txheej hauv qab no tsis yog qhov zoo, tab sis nws tsis tau mus txog qib kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo
Tam sim no, ntxiv rau kev tsom mus rau kev xa tawm, kev lag luam kev lag luam kuj tseem ntseeg tias cov lus pom tsis zoo los ntawm kev thov qis qis yog tus yuam sij rau kev txiav txim siab tus nqi sab saum toj ntawm styrene. Peb lub hauv paus tseem ceeb hauv kev txiav txim siab seb qhov kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo cuam tshuam cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam kaw / thauj khoom txo yog: 1. seb cov txiaj ntsig qis qis puas poob; 2. Puas muaj kev txiav txim qis qis; 3. Puas yog cov khoom lag luam qis qis siab. Tam sim no, downstream EPS / PS cov txiaj ntsig tau poob nyiaj, tab sis qhov poob hauv ob xyoos dhau los tseem tau txais, thiab ABS kev lag luam tseem muaj txiaj ntsig. Tam sim no, PS cov lus nug yog nyob rau theem qis thiab kev txiav txim tseem txais tau; EPS cov khoom lag luam loj hlob qeeb, nrog qee lub tuam txhab muaj cov khoom muag ntau dua thiab cov xaj tsis muaj zog. Hauv cov ntsiab lus, txawm hais tias qhov xwm txheej qis qis tsis zoo, nws tseem tsis tau mus txog theem ntawm kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo.
Nws tau nkag siab tias qee lub davhlau ya nyob twg tseem muaj kev cia siab zoo rau Ob Chav Kaum Ib Hlis thiab Kaum Ob Hlis, thiab cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev hauv lub Cuaj Hli yuav tsum nce ntxiv. Yog li ntawd, tseem muaj cov nqi muaj zog nyob rau hauv qhov kev xav tau rov ntxiv rau lub Yim Hli lig. Muaj ob qhov xwm txheej:
1. Yog hais tias styrene rebounds ua ntej ib nrab lub yim hli ntuj, muaj kev cia siab ntawm ib tug rebound nyob rau hauv cov nqi los ntawm lub kawg ntawm lub hli;
2. Yog tias styrene tsis thim rov qab ua ntej nruab nrab Lub Yim Hli thiab tseem muaj zog ntxiv, cov khoom lag luam hauv lub davhlau ya nyob twg yuav raug ncua, thiab cov nqi yuav poob qis thaum kawg ntawm lub hli.
Post lub sij hawm: Lub Xya hli ntuj-25-2023
