Covacrylonitrile tshuajKev lag luam tau coj mus rau hauv lub peev xwm tso tawm lub voj voog hauv xyoo 2022, nrog lub peev xwm loj hlob ntawm ntau dua 10% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab nce siab zog. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, peb pom tias qhov kev thov sab nraud tsis zoo li nws yuav tsum yog vim muaj kev sib kis, thiab kev lag luam tau muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev poob qis, nrog cov teeb ci ntsa iab nyuaj nrhiav.

Cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw: Goldlink

Kev lag luam hauv tsev acrylonitrile hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 tau pom tias thawj zaug poob qis tom qab muaj ntau yam oscillation dominated. Ua piv txwv East Tuam Tshoj ua lag luam, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 yog ntawm RMB 11,455 / ton, nqis 21.29% xyoo-rau-xyoo, nrog tus nqi siab tshaj ntawm RMB 13,100 / tuj, uas tau tshwm sim thaum Lub Ib Hlis, thiab qhov qis tshaj plaws ntawm RMB 10,800 / ton, uas tau tshwm sim rau lub Rau Hli.

Lub ntsiab tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau kev ua lag luam yog.

I. Kev nce ntxiv. 2022 tseem yog ib xyoos ntawm kev nthuav dav hauv tsev acrylonitrile, muab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm 2 pawg ntawm cov nroj tsuag acrylonitrile nrog tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 390,000 tons / xyoo, suav nrog Lihua Yi 260,000 tons / xyoo thiab Tianchen Qixiang 130,000 tons / xyoo. Txawm hais tias kev xa tawm ntim tau nce 12.1% xyoo-rau-xyoo txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Tsib Hlis, cov khoom siv thiab kev thov tseem pheej loj hlob zuj zus.

Qhov thib ob, qhov rov tshwm sim ntawm tus kab mob sib kis tau ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov rau cov khoom lag luam hauv lub Hoobkas. Txij li thaum nkag mus rau xyoo 2022 nws yeej ib txwm nyob rau theem ntawm kev xa khoom ntau dhau, kev lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog tau nrawm nrawm tom qab qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib kis tau qhib thaum kawg ntawm peb lub hlis twg, kev xa khoom hauv East Tuam Tshoj thiab Shandong tau nres, thiab tseem muaj thaj chaw loj. ntawm kev txo qis thiab kaw, tom qab qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm kev thov, acrylonitrile Hoobkas cov khoom lag luam siab tau nce ntxiv, tau txuas ntxiv txo tus nqi txhawb txoj cai.

Thib peb, kev lag luam downstream xav tau kev loj hlob yog txwv. 150,000 tons / xyoo tshiab LG Huizhou cog tau ntxiv rau ABS hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022, siv tsuas yog 37,500 tons / xyoo ntawm cov khoom siv raw acrylonitrile, yog li kev loj hlob ntawm cov peev txheej qis qis dua qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv raw, yog li qhov nruab nrab qhib. ntawm cov nroj tsuag acrylonitrile nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog nyob ze 80%, uas qhia tau hais tias cov nroj tsuag muag siab.

Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm 2022, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam acrylonitrile yuav txuas ntxiv nws cov qib qis oscillation, thiab tag nrho cov kev hloov kho qhov chaw yog qhov txwv. Tsis tas li ntawd, acrylonitrile tshiab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm tau nce ntau nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv yuav nce ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, qis qis ABS tsuas yog xav kom muaj cov cuab yeej tshiab tso rau hauv kev ua haujlwm, qhov kev thov tag nrho raug txwv, nyob rau hauv qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau, cov khoom siv acrylonitrile thiab kev thov tsis sib haum yuav nce ntxiv, thaum lub Hoobkas qhib tseem nyuaj los txhim kho, loj dua. cov tuam txhab muaj peev xwm yuav yuav cov kev ntsuas tsis zoo. Txij li thaum acrylonitrile feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv tus nqi kab, nws tseem yuav tsum tau them sai sai rau cov qauv ntawm raw khoom propylene. Ex-factory nqi (tus nqi lag luam) yuav tsum nyob rau hauv thaj tsam ntawm RMB 10,000-12,000 / mt nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam tseem ceeb, nrog rau cov ntsiab lus siab tej zaum yuav tshwm sim nyob rau lub yim hli ntuj.

Nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam acrylonitrile nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm 2022, feedstock propylene yog qhov tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau tus nqi hloov pauv. Txij li thaum qhov kev nthuav dav tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog qhov kev txiav txim siab yav dhau los, nws yog qhov nyuaj kom muaj qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi rov qab nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo. Yog li, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw propylene yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb los txiav txim siab tus nqi ntawm acrylonitrile. Yog tias propylene nyob ze RMB 8,000 / mt, nws yuav nyuaj rau acrylonitrile mus txuas ntxiv. Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias tus nqi propylene tseem pheej poob qis, tus nqi acrylonitrile tseem yuav muaj peev xwm poob qis hauv qhov siab ntawm oversupply.

Los ntawm 2022 txog 2023, Tuam Tshoj yuav ntxiv 1.38 lab tons / xyoo ntawm acrylonitrile cov nroj tsuag, thiab ntau ntawm lawv yog refining thiab tshuaj integrated pab txhawb pab kiag li lawm, uas yog feem ntau yuav muab tso rau hauv lub lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, cov dej hauv qab nkaus xwb ABS tab tom txhim kho sai, zoo li acrylics thiab acrylamide nyob rau hauv lub xeev tsis sov, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dhau. Nws cia siab tias nyob rau hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej no, nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm acrylonitrile muaj peev xwm, kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig poob qis, thiab qee qhov kev txhim kho tshiab tau ntsib qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm kev ncua thiab txee.

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