Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, acrylonitrile saw nqi poob xyoo-rau-xyoo, lub zog ntawm lub peev xwm nthuav mus ntxiv, thiab feem ntau cov khoom txuas ntxiv poob nyiaj.

1. Cov nqi saw poob qis xyoo-rau-xyoo hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg

Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, acrylonitrile saw nqi poob xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab tsuas yog ammonia nqi tau nce me ntsis xyoo-rau-xyoo. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas sawv cev los ntawm acrylonitrile tau txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, thiab cov qauv ntawm kev xa khoom ntau dhau ntawm qee cov khoom tau maj mam tshwm sim, nrog rau cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua piv nrog tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Ntawm lawv, ABS yog qhov poob qis tshaj plaws hauv ib xyoos ntawm cov khoom lag luam, qis dua 20% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Raws li qhov kawg ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg, qhov nruab nrab kev lag luam tus nqi ntawm acrylonitrile nyob rau hauv East China ports yog RMB10,416 ib tuj, nqis 8.91% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab nce 0.17% ntawm lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo tas los.

Raws li kev lag luam acrylonitrile nws tus kheej, lub peev xwm ntawm acrylonitrile kev lag luam txuas ntxiv nthuav dav hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg. Raws li Zhuo Chuang cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais, kev lag luam acrylonitrile tau ntxiv 330,000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, nce 8.97% los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2022, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm 4.009 lab tons. Los ntawm kev lag luam tus kheej cov khoom siv thiab qhov xav tau, tag nrho cov khoom siv acrylonitrile yog ib zaug nyob ib ncig ntawm 760,000 tons, nqis 2.68% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab nce 0.53% YoY. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm downstream noj, acrylonitrile downstream noj yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 695,000 tons nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, nce 2.52% xyoo-rau-xyoo thiab down 5.7% sequentially.

Chain profits poob nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg yog feem ntau yog ib tug chain profit poob nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, txawm hais tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm qee cov khoom lag luam acrylonitrile saw tau nce YoY, feem ntau ntawm cov khoom txuas ntxiv poob nyiaj. ABS tau hloov pauv loj hauv cov khoom lag luam zoo, uas tau nqis los ntawm ntau dua 90% YoY. Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, cov nqi acrylonitrile tau nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob, nrog rau tag nrho cov nqi nce me ntsis los ntawm lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo tas los thiab tus nqi siab ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis zuj zus. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub zog ntawm ABS lub peev xwm nthuav dav txuas ntxiv, thiab tus nqi siab ntawm cov nroj tsuag tau nce ntau, nrog rau cov tuam txhab cov txiaj ntsig tau nqaim heev. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm acrylonitrile, vim qhov pom tseeb poob ntawm factories nyob rau hauv 2022, manufacturers tau hloov tau yooj yim dua nyob rau hauv kho cov khoom loads, thiab qhov nruab nrab kev lag luam pib-up load factor poob qis heev nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2023, nrog tag nrho cov nqi nce thiab ces poob, thiab cov degree ntawm poob ntawm acrylonitrile factories nqaim me ntsis piv nrog rau lub quarter thib plaub ntawm xyoo tas los. Thaum kawg ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg, qhov nyiaj nruab nrab ntawm cov nroj tsuag acrylonitrile yog ze rau $ 181 / tuj.

2. Cov kev sib txuas hauv lub quarter thib ob tseem tsis zoo

Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, cov nqi acrylonitrile tau nce thiab tom qab ntawd poob, thiab cov nroj tsuag poob qis me ntsis. Saib ua ntej mus rau lub quarter thib ob, tag nrho cov qauv ntawm cov saw tseem tsis zoo. Ntawm lawv, tag nrho cov qauv ntawm acrylic acid thiab hluavtaws ammonia yuav tsum fluctuate me ntsis; nyob rau hauv acrylonitrile, qee lub chaw tsim khoom npaj kho, tab sis cov kev xav tau qis qis yuav tsum tsis txhob txhim kho, thiab nws nyuaj rau cov nqi tawg los ntawm thawj lub quarter siab; Nyob rau hauv cov khoom downstream, acrylic acid davhlau ya nyob twg Hoobkas txiav txim yog dav dav, thiab manufacturers tej zaum yuav muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm tus nqi poob, ABS tshiab muaj peev xwm tsim tawm mus ntxiv, thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev yog cov khoom siv ntau dhau, thiab cov nqi kuj tseem qis. Tag nrho cov saw tseem tsis zoo.